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Pick a player, a market and a line, and this page counts how often that player cleared the line in their own games: over their last 5, 10 or 20 appearances and over this season. Every rate is printed with the raw count behind it, so 7 of 10 reads as 7 of 10 and not as a bare 70%. The counting is done in your browser from official box scores. No account needed.
The count reads one row per game from the official box score. A game with no figure for the stat you picked is a game the player did not play, and it is left out rather than counted as a zero. In the NBA a box score with zero minutes is a game the player sat out, which a sportsbook voids, so it is left out too. That is the same rule the props board uses, so a Last 10 here and a Last 10 there are the same ten games.
Last 10 means the player’s ten most recent appearances, newest first, even when some of them were last season. Early in a season that is the only honest way to fill the window: a Last 10 that stopped at opening night would be a three game sample printed under a ten game label. When a window does reach back into last season, the page says how many of its games did.
The season row counts every game in the newest season the player’s box scores carry. For a player who has not appeared yet this season, that is last season, and the page names the year so you can tell.
A game counts as over when the stat finishes above the line and under when it finishes below it. On a whole number line a game can finish exactly on the number, and that is a push, shown separately. Nothing is rounded and nothing is estimated: every figure is a count of games you could check against the game log yourself.
Say a player scored 28, 19, 31, 25, 22, 27, 30, 24, 26, 33 points in their last ten games, newest first. Against a line of 24.5, 7 of those games went over and 3 stayed under, so the page prints 7 of 10, a hit rate of 70%. A half point line can never be met exactly, so every game lands on one side or the other.
Move the line to 25 and the same ten games split three ways: 6 over, 3 under and 1 landing exactly on 25. A sportsbook refunds that one as a push, so the page counts it as a push and prints it on its own line rather than quietly giving it to either side.
This page shows one number, a hit rate: how often a player has cleared one exact line in the games behind it, counted from the official game log. It is not a model estimate, not a combined chance and not the market fair probability; the glossary defines all three. None of the four is a forecast of the next game.
The other numbers are defined in the glossary: model estimate, combined chance and market fair probability.
A rate from a handful of games swings hard. Three games can only read 0%, 33%, 67% or 100%, so a perfect Last 3 says very little on its own. That is why every rate here carries its count: 7 of 10 and 14 of 20 are both 70%, and the second one rests on twice as many games.
How often a player has cleared one exact line in the games behind it, counted from the official game log. If a player went over 24.5 points in 7 of their last 10 games, the hit rate over that line is 70% for that window. A record of past games, not a forecast of the next one.
Because the number of games behind a rate matters as much as the rate. 7 of 10 and 70 of 100 are both 70%, but the first can move twenty points on two games and the second barely moves at all. Printing the count keeps the denominator in front of you.
They are not counted. A game with no figure for the stat is one the player missed, and in the NBA a box score with zero minutes is a game the player sat out, which a sportsbook voids. Both are left out, so a window only ever counts games actually played.
A game that finishes exactly on 25 is a push, which a sportsbook refunds. The page counts it as a push and shows it on its own, so neither the over nor the under count is padded with games that were neither.
No. A hit rate says how often a line was cleared in the past, not whether tonight’s price is worth paying. A player who cleared a line 8 times in 10 can still be priced so short that the bet loses money over time, and the next game is not obliged to follow the last ten.
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.