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Research NBA player props against measured history: how often a player has actually cleared the line, over how many games, and how that rate compares to the probability the current price implies. Odds from the major US sportsbooks, the sample printed beside every number.
Best NBA props today, ranked on measured history
That is your call to make, and this page is built to give you what you need to make it rather than to make it for you. Every available NBA prop is scored the same way (the player’s own game log against the line on offer, shrunk toward the price’s own implied probability so a short hot run cannot pass for a trend) and that score travels with the games behind it on every row. The board’s order is plain to check. Ranked by hit rate, weighted by sample: 55% over 200 games ranks above 58% over 12, because a long record is harder to fluke than a short one. 9 or 10 of the last 10, or 7 straight, ranks a little higher, as does a matchup that favors the side. Prices from −300 to +250, the range most readers can actually take, sort above the longer and shorter ones, which stay on the board below them. That order describes games already played; it is not a prediction about tonight. Where at least two books quote both sides of a line, the card also shows the market’s own fair price, what the books imply once their built-in margin is taken back out, so you can set the history beside the price yourself. We tested ranking on our own measured gap between history and price and it did not beat the market’s de-vigged consensus, which is why that gap does not set the order.
How often a player has cleared one exact line in the games behind it, counted from the official game log. For the NBA it is measured over the last 3, 5 and 10 games and the full season, split by home/away and opponent, and the Under is counted the same way. Every rate carries the number of games behind it, because a percentage without a denominator is the easiest number on the internet to mislead yourself with.
Convert the odds into an implied probability, then put the player’s measured rate next to it. Parlay Builder does that on every NBA prop automatically and shows the gap in probability points. Read it as a description of the two numbers, not as a verdict: the gap is measured against the posted price with the book’s margin still in it, most of the board sits near or below zero, and a large gap is more often a stale line than an opportunity.
Partly. Without a subscription you get 2 AI parlay builds of 3 legs a day. Pick your leg count and risk level and it assembles an NBA ticket from the same scored board, applies the correlation cap, and shows every leg’s hit rate, sample and live price so you can take it apart.
An NBA club plays 82 regular-season games between late October and mid-April, three or four nights a week, and a rotation player who stays healthy finishes with 60 to 70 logged games. That is the deepest sample of the four leagues here, and it is why an NBA rate moves less when one more game lands on it than a WNBA or NFL rate does.
It also means a ten-game window is about three weeks of basketball rather than most of a season, so the short windows and the season figure on a player page are genuinely answering different questions. The short one is recent usage; the long one is the role.
Minutes are the variable underneath every NBA counting line. Rest between games, a blowout that ends the fourth quarter early, and a night off on the second half of a back-to-back all move a points line without anything changing about how the player scores. The game log carries the gap since the last game beside each row so that a short night is visible as a short night.
Every rate on this site is counted from the official box score. What that box score counts differs by market, and two of these are not lines at all:
The injury report is the first thing that moves an NBA number, and it moves several at once. A starter ruled out does not only remove his own props from the board: it redistributes his minutes and his shot attempts across the rotation, so every remaining teammate’s line is repriced off a role none of them held last game. A measured hit rate is a record of games played in the old role.
The second is the fourth quarter. A blowout in either direction ends a starter’s night early, and that is the most common way a points Over fails on an evening the player was scoring efficiently. Nothing in a season-long rate anticipates it, and nothing in the box score afterwards distinguishes it from a quiet game.
Status news in this league also lands late (a pre-game ruling an hour before tip is routine) so an NBA line seen in the afternoon and the same line at tip-off are frequently different numbers. The price age printed beside every prop on the board is there so that gap is visible rather than assumed away.
Steals and blocks are the two markets where a season rate carries almost the whole argument. Lines sit at 0.5 or 1.5, a single play settles the bet, and a player’s last five games contain so few events that the short window is close to noise. When the recent and the season figures disagree in these markets, the season figure is usually the one describing the player.
Turnovers invert the usual reading: more minutes and more usage push toward the Over, so the same role change that helps a points Over hurts a turnovers Under. It is worth checking the direction you have actually taken before treating a high hit rate as good news.
The double-double market is an achievement market crossed with a minutes market. There is no line to clear, so the page reports a rate, and the rate is only as stable as the rotation behind it: a player who sits at ten rebounds a night converts it far more often when the team plays him 34 minutes than when it plays him 28.
Sportsbooks price NBA player props on game day, so from the last game of the Finals until the preseason there is no NBA board to rank and this page will say so rather than show an empty table.
What does not go away is the game log. Every NBA player page here is built from box scores and stays up through the summer, as do the per-market insight pages and the team pages, and all of them are rebuilt nightly from whatever the box scores currently reach back to. The board comes back when the books post it; the history was never gone.
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.