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Research MLB batter and pitcher props against measured history: hit rates over several windows, the games behind each one, and how each rate compares to the live price. Odds compared across the major US sportsbooks.
Best MLB props today, ranked on measured history
Parlay Builder ranks MLB batter and pitcher props on measured history against the posted line — every prop scored identically, every rate shown with its sample. The ranking is a description of which props’ histories sit furthest from their prices, not a claim that those props win. Use it to find the rows worth your attention, then check the game log, the sample and the price age we print beside each one.
Each is an Over/Under on a stat line. Parlay Builder shows how often the pitcher or batter has actually cleared that line over several windows, the number of games in each window, and the probability the current price implies — so you can see the two side by side rather than being handed a verdict.
Yes. The AI parlay generator is free to use, with a daily allowance and no account needed to browse the board. Set your leg count and risk level and it assembles an MLB ticket from the same scored board, showing each leg’s measured hit rate, its sample, the live price and the combined odds.
A major-league club plays 162 games between late March and the end of September, most days of most weeks. It is the deepest schedule of the four leagues here by a wide margin, and it produces the one page on this site where two completely different sample sizes sit side by side.
An everyday batter logs something like 150 games. A starting pitcher logs around 30, because he works once every fifth day. Both appear on the same MLB board with the same style of rate beside them, and the pitcher's is built on a fifth of the evidence. The game count next to each rate is not decoration on this league; it is the difference between two numbers that look alike.
The lineup card is the variable underneath a batter prop. A prop assumes a start, and a rest day, a platoon split or a slide down the order changes the plate appearances available before anything changes about the hitter. Pitcher markets have the same dependence on expected innings: a strikeout line moves with how deep a starter is likely to go as much as with how he misses bats.
From the official box score, one row per game played. Batter and pitcher markets are measured the same way and mean quite different things:
The lineup card is the whole game for batter props. Lineups are confirmed a few hours before first pitch, and until they are, a prop on a hitter is partly a bet that he starts. A rest day, a platoon decision against a same-handed starter, or a slide from second to seventh in the order all change the plate appearances available before anything changes about the hitter himself.
The opposing starter moves everything else. Handedness, how deep he typically works, and whether the club is using an opener or a bullpen game all reprice a batter’s markets and change what a strikeout line even means — a strikeout Over on a pitcher who is not going five innings is a different bet from the same number on one who is.
Park and conditions matter more in this league than in any other here. The same swing is a home run in one stadium and a fly ball in another, and wind direction is a live variable in a way it simply is not indoors.
RBIs are the most context-dependent market on any board on this site. A hitter cannot drive in runners who are not on base, so an RBI rate is substantially a measurement of the batters ahead of him in the order — and lineups change. A high RBI rate from a hitter who has since moved down the order is a true measurement of a situation that no longer exists.
The pitcher markets are hard for a different reason: sample. A starter finishes a season with roughly thirty logged games where an everyday hitter has well over a hundred, so a pitcher’s strikeout or hits-allowed rate is built on a fraction of the evidence and moves much more when one start is added. The logged-games count beside the rate is the number to read first on any pitcher prop.
Home runs are a rare-event market. At an 0.5 line the question is only how often, never by how much, and even a full season gives a slugger a few dozen of them. It is measurable and it is thin, and both of those things are true at the same time.
Baseball has the shortest gap of the four leagues here — the postseason runs into November and pitchers and catchers report in February — but it is still a stretch of months with no board to price, and MLB props are posted day of game, often only once the lineup card is out.
The measured history stays up through the winter. Player pages, the per-market insight pages and the club pages are all built from box scores rather than from prices, so they keep working in January, and the window each one measured is printed on it so you can see how far back the log currently reaches.
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.