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Across 27 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in completion %, this page measures 443 games in total. The median player in that field averages 65.0 completion percentage. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 65.5 for the median of the 27 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 22 logged games. Of the 27 players whose spread can be measured, 27 cluster tightly around their average, 0 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 27 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 70.1 completion percentage | Over 69.5 | 12 of 22 (55%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 63.6 completion percentage | Over 63.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 20 | 58.3 completion percentage | Over 58.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 69.1 completion percentage | Over 68.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 19 | 62.9 completion percentage | Over 62.5 | 9 of 19 (47%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 68.8 completion percentage | Over 68.5 | 9 of 19 (47%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 19 | 67.1 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 11 of 19 (58%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 19 | 62.3 completion percentage | Over 61.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 64.7 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 64.2 completion percentage | Over 64.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 62.9 completion percentage | Over 62.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 18 | 65.0 completion percentage | Over 62.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 18 | 66.0 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 8 of 18 (44%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 17 | 59.1 completion percentage | Over 58.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 67.0 completion percentage | Over 65.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 64.1 completion percentage | Over 63.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 16 | 68.3 completion percentage | Over 68.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 16 | 64.5 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 15 | 62.0 completion percentage | Over 62.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 14 | 67.2 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 67.7 completion percentage | Over 68.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 65.2 completion percentage | Over 67.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 12 | 67.7 completion percentage | Over 72.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 12 | 65.7 completion percentage | Over 66.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 64.4 completion percentage | Over 61.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 11 | 67.5 completion percentage | Over 65.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 10 | 59.7 completion percentage | Over 58.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 62.9 completion percentage | 5.9 | 9% |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 11 | 67.5 completion percentage | 6.4 | 9% |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 16 | 68.3 completion percentage | 6.2 | 9% |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 67.0 completion percentage | 6.9 | 10% |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 67.7 completion percentage | 6.6 | 10% |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 20 | 58.3 completion percentage | 6.0 | 10% |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 63.6 completion percentage | 6.6 | 10% |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 69.1 completion percentage | 7.7 | 11% |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 19 | 62.9 completion percentage | 7.2 | 11% |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 10 | 59.7 completion percentage | 6.7 | 11% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 64.1 completion percentage | 11.7 | 18% |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 64.2 completion percentage | 11.0 | 17% |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 18 | 65.0 completion percentage | 10.7 | 17% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 64.7 completion percentage | 10.0 | 16% |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 17 | 59.1 completion percentage | 9.4 | 16% |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 70.1 completion percentage | 11.1 | 16% |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 68.8 completion percentage | 10.2 | 15% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 15 | 62.0 completion percentage | 9.6 | 15% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 64.4 completion percentage | 8.7 | 14% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 65.2 completion percentage | 9.0 | 14% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 68.3 (11) | 62.5 (7) | 5.8 at home |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 63.5 (3) | 58.1 (7) | 5.4 at home |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 63.7 (14) | 58.4 (5) | 5.3 at home |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 70.2 (6) | 65.3 (11) | 4.9 at home |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 64.9 (11) | 60.2 (8) | 4.7 at home |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 56.3 (7) | 61.0 (10) | 4.7 away |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 69.5 (9) | 64.9 (10) | 4.6 at home |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 66.6 (8) | 62.3 (10) | 4.3 at home |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 67.2 (11) | 71.3 (9) | 4.1 away |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 63.1 (8) | 67.1 (4) | 4.0 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 71.0 completion percentage | 64.2 over 18 | 11% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 59.6 completion percentage | 70.1 over 22 | 15% below |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 58.0 completion percentage | 64.5 over 16 | 10% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.