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Across 27 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in passer rating, this page measures 443 games in total. The median player in that field averages 94.2 passer rating. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 90.5 for the median of the 27 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 22 logged games. Of the 27 players whose spread can be measured, 26 cluster tightly around their average, 1 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 27 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 106.0 passer rating | Over 101.5 | 12 of 22 (55%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 104.1 passer rating | Over 105.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 20 | 89.5 passer rating | Over 83.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 103.5 passer rating | Over 104.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 19 | 86.8 passer rating | Over 84.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 106.8 passer rating | Over 101.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 19 | 100.8 passer rating | Over 90.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 19 | 94.2 passer rating | Over 81.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 92.2 passer rating | Over 95.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 90.3 passer rating | Over 94.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 86.8 passer rating | Over 88.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 18 | 100.0 passer rating | Over 96.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 18 | 92.6 passer rating | Over 86.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 17 | 79.4 passer rating | Over 78.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 99.8 passer rating | Over 97.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 90.8 passer rating | Over 87.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 16 | 87.6 passer rating | Over 92.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 16 | 101.5 passer rating | Over 101.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 15 | 89.3 passer rating | Over 86.5 | 7 of 15 (47%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 14 | 87.3 passer rating | Over 88.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 101.4 passer rating | Over 101.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 94.8 passer rating | Over 92.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 12 | 94.9 passer rating | Over 84.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 12 | 98.6 passer rating | Over 96.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 103.8 passer rating | Over 88.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 11 | 91.9 passer rating | Over 85.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 10 | 77.6 passer rating | Over 69.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 94.8 passer rating | 11.9 | 13% |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 12 | 98.6 passer rating | 14.4 | 15% |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 101.4 passer rating | 18.7 | 18% |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 16 | 101.5 passer rating | 20.0 | 20% |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 103.5 passer rating | 21.4 | 21% |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 19 | 86.8 passer rating | 18.7 | 21% |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 104.1 passer rating | 22.0 | 21% |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 17 | 79.4 passer rating | 18.4 | 23% |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 106.8 passer rating | 25.7 | 24% |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 99.8 passer rating | 23.4 | 24% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 14 | 87.3 passer rating | 31.4 | 36% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 15 | 89.3 passer rating | 30.0 | 34% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 103.8 passer rating | 33.5 | 32% |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 90.8 passer rating | 28.6 | 31% |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 86.8 passer rating | 26.8 | 31% |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 18 | 100.0 passer rating | 30.9 | 31% |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 12 | 94.9 passer rating | 28.4 | 30% |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 10 | 77.6 passer rating | 22.5 | 29% |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 106.0 passer rating | 29.5 | 28% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 92.2 passer rating | 24.9 | 27% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 90.9 (8) | 129.7 (4) | 38.8 away |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 101.2 (11) | 79.0 (7) | 22.2 at home |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 68.0 (7) | 87.4 (10) | 19.4 away |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 94.2 (8) | 112.9 (5) | 18.7 away |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 110.3 (9) | 92.1 (10) | 18.2 at home |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 88.7 (14) | 104.1 (4) | 15.4 away |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 95.3 (7) | 106.3 (9) | 11.0 away |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 91.3 (11) | 80.6 (8) | 10.7 at home |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 96.8 (5) | 87.7 (6) | 9.1 at home |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 94.5 (6) | 102.6 (11) | 8.1 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 111.3 passer rating | 94.2 over 19 | 18% above |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 92.5 passer rating | 79.4 over 17 | 16% above |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 90.1 passer rating | 77.6 over 10 | 16% above |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 103.1 passer rating | 91.9 over 11 | 12% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 76.0 passer rating | 106.0 over 22 | 28% below |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 76.3 passer rating | 92.2 over 18 | 17% below |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 75.2 passer rating | 89.3 over 15 | 16% below |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 87.5 passer rating | 101.4 over 13 | 14% below |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 79.9 passer rating | 90.8 over 16 | 12% below |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 91.8 passer rating | 103.8 over 12 | 12% below |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 92.9 passer rating | 104.1 over 21 | 11% below |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 84.8 passer rating | 94.9 over 12 | 11% below |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 95.9 passer rating | 106.8 over 19 | 10% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.