How MLB hits allowed actually behave

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Across 397 MLB players with at least 10 logged games in hits allowed, this page measures 7638 games in total. The median player in that field averages 1.1 hits allowed. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 0.5 for the median of the 397 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Hunter Gaddis, with 41 logged games. Of the 235 players whose spread can be measured, 26 cluster tightly around their average, 104 vary moderately and 105 swing widely. 396 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.

Measured as of 2026-11-15, rebuilt daily from official box scores. Window: 2026-07-18 to 2026-10-28. No prices appear on this page.

7,638 logged player-games from 1,010 unique games. A player-game is one player in one game, so a single game counts once for every player it logged.

Where the coin-flip line sits in MLB hits allowed

Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 397 measured; the figures above this table are over all 397.

MLB hits allowed: measured field
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Balanced line	Hit rate there
Hunter Gaddis	Guardians	41	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	24 of 41 (59%)
Kevin Kelly	Rays	39	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	20 of 39 (51%)
Aaron Ashby	Brewers	38	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 38 (45%)
Brent Headrick	Yankees	36	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	21 of 36 (58%)
Bryan Baker	Rays	36	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	16 of 36 (44%)
Cade Smith	Guardians	36	0.4 hits allowed	Over 0.5	11 of 36 (31%)
Bradgley Rodriguez	Padres	35	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	20 of 35 (57%)
Cam Booser	Rays	35	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	14 of 35 (40%)
Alex Vesia	Dodgers	34	0.4 hits allowed	Over 0.5	12 of 34 (35%)
Bryan Abreu	Astros	34	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	14 of 34 (41%)
Yuki Matsui	Padres	34	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	15 of 34 (44%)
Adrian Morejon	Padres	33	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	14 of 33 (42%)
Erik Sabrowski	Guardians	33	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	13 of 33 (39%)
Evan Phillips	Dodgers	33	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	16 of 33 (48%)
Mason Fluharty	Blue Jays	33	0.3 hits allowed	Over 0.5	9 of 33 (27%)
Paul Blackburn	Yankees	33	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 33 (52%)
Raisel Iglesias	Braves	33	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 33 (52%)
Tanner Scott	Dodgers	33	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 33 (52%)
Tim Herrin	Guardians	33	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	18 of 33 (55%)
Trevor Megill	Brewers	33	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	13 of 33 (39%)
Tyler Alexander	Rangers	33	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	20 of 33 (61%)
Abner Uribe	Brewers	32	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	18 of 32 (56%)
Didier Fuentes	Braves	32	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	18 of 32 (56%)
Dylan Lee	Braves	32	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	16 of 32 (50%)
Kevin Ginkel	Diamondbacks	32	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	13 of 32 (41%)
Kody Funderburk	Twins	32	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	16 of 32 (50%)
Mason Montgomery	Pirates	32	0.4 hits allowed	Over 0.5	9 of 32 (28%)
Antonio Senzatela	Brewers	31	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	20 of 31 (65%)
Bennett Sousa	Astros	31	1.1 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 31 (61%)
Bryan Hudson	White Sox	31	1.1 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 31 (61%)
Chase Silseth	Rangers	31	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 31 (61%)
Elvis Alvarado	Athletics	31	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 31 (55%)
Justin Bruihl	Cardinals	31	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	20 of 31 (65%)
Rico Garcia	Orioles	31	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	14 of 31 (45%)
AJ Blubaugh	Astros	30	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	22 of 30 (73%)
Braydon Fisher	Blue Jays	30	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	13 of 30 (43%)
David Bednar	Yankees	30	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	14 of 30 (47%)
Josh Hader	Astros	30	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	10 of 30 (33%)
Luis Gastelum	Cardinals	30	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 30 (63%)
Mason Miller	Padres	30	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	17 of 30 (57%)

The steadiest MLB hits allowed records

Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.

The steadiest MLB hits allowed records
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Zac Thornton	Mets	12	5.5 hits allowed	1.3	23%
Gabriel Hughes	Rockies	11	5.2 hits allowed	1.3	24%
Brady Singer	Reds	12	6.8 hits allowed	1.7	25%
Seth Lugo	Royals	12	6.7 hits allowed	1.7	25%
Trevor Rogers	Orioles	13	5.8 hits allowed	1.5	26%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Dodgers	13	3.9 hits allowed	1.1	27%
Tyler Mahle	Braves	14	4.6 hits allowed	1.2	27%
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics	10	5.0 hits allowed	1.3	27%
Grayson Rodriguez	Angels	13	5.6 hits allowed	1.5	28%
George Kirby	Mariners	12	6.3 hits allowed	1.8	28%

The widest MLB hits allowed swings

The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.

The widest MLB hits allowed swings
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Connor Thomas	Royals	18	1.5 hits allowed	2.2	148%
Jordan Montgomery	Rangers	13	1.5 hits allowed	2.1	136%
Luis Mey	Reds	22	1.3 hits allowed	1.7	134%
Julian Garcia	Reds	26	1.0 hits allowed	1.3	127%
Michael Rucker	Mariners	24	1.1 hits allowed	1.3	122%
Edwin Díaz	Dodgers	18	1.1 hits allowed	1.3	120%
Didier Fuentes	Braves	32	1.0 hits allowed	1.2	120%
Beau Brieske	Tigers	10	1.4 hits allowed	1.7	120%
Yerry De los Santos	Yankees	11	1.1 hits allowed	1.3	120%
Drew Rom	Athletics	13	1.2 hits allowed	1.4	116%

The widest home and away gaps in MLB hits allowed

Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.

MLB hits allowed: venue gaps
Player	Club	Home (games)	Away (games)	Gap
Kyle Harrison	Brewers	1.8 (4)	6.1 (7)	4.3 away
Martín Pérez	Braves	2.5 (6)	6.5 (6)	4.0 away
Luis Castillo	White Sox	3.3 (4)	6.6 (7)	3.3 away
Gage Jump	Athletics	3.6 (5)	6.8 (5)	3.2 away
Kyle Bradish	Orioles	4.0 (3)	7.0 (7)	3.0 away
Matthew Liberatore	Cardinals	7.2 (6)	4.3 (6)	2.9 at home
Tanner Gordon	Rockies	7.6 (7)	5.0 (5)	2.6 at home
Jack Perkins	Athletics	6.3 (6)	3.9 (7)	2.4 at home
Davis Martin	White Sox	3.4 (8)	5.8 (4)	2.4 away
Cristopher Sánchez	Phillies	7.0 (8)	4.7 (6)	2.3 at home

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five

Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Edgardo Henriquez	Dodgers	2.2 hits allowed	0.8 over 27	183% above
Craig Kimbrel	Royals	1.8 hits allowed	0.8 over 18	131% above
Mason Miller	Padres	1.6 hits allowed	0.7 over 30	129% above
Josh Hader	Astros	1.2 hits allowed	0.5 over 30	125% above
Garrett Whitlock	Red Sox	1.6 hits allowed	0.8 over 20	113% above
José Suarez	Athletics	2.6 hits allowed	1.2 over 13	111% above
Alex Hoppe	Orioles	1.6 hits allowed	0.8 over 21	110% above
Taylor Clarke	Diamondbacks	2.2 hits allowed	1.1 over 28	99% above
Samy Natera Jr.	Angels	1.8 hits allowed	0.9 over 15	93% above
Kevin Kelly	Rays	1.6 hits allowed	0.8 over 39	89% above

Behind their own baseline over the last five

The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.

Behind their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Jeff Hoffman	Twins	0.0 hits allowed	0.5 over 27	100% below
Kenley Jansen	Tigers	0.0 hits allowed	0.3 over 23	100% below
Tayler Saucedo	Angels	0.0 hits allowed	0.5 over 22	100% below
Justin Martinez	Diamondbacks	0.0 hits allowed	0.3 over 15	100% below
Roki Sasaki	Dodgers	0.4 hits allowed	2.8 over 12	85% below
Slade Cecconi	Guardians	0.4 hits allowed	2.5 over 11	84% below
AJ Blubaugh	Astros	0.2 hits allowed	1.0 over 30	80% below
Josh Ekness	Marlins	0.2 hits allowed	0.9 over 24	77% below
Tanner Scott	Dodgers	0.2 hits allowed	0.8 over 33	76% below
Brent Suter	Braves	0.4 hits allowed	1.5 over 21	73% below

Common questions

Where does the MLB hits allowed coin-flip line sit?

At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.

Is this a ranking of the best MLB hits allowed props?

No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.

How many games are behind each hits allowed figure?

The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.

Does a hits allowed trend on this page predict the next game?

No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.

What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.

MLB player props and live odds

Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.