How MLB hits allowed actually behave

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Across 484 MLB players with at least 10 logged games in hits allowed, this page measures 12258 games in total. The median player in that field averages 1.2 hits allowed. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 1.5 for the median of the 484 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Mason Fluharty, with 53 logged games. Of the 309 players whose spread can be measured, 26 cluster tightly around their average, 138 vary moderately and 145 swing widely. 482 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.

Measured as of 2026-09-20, rebuilt daily from official box scores. Window: 2026-05-23 to 2026-09-20. No prices appear on this page.

Where the coin-flip line sits in MLB hits allowed

Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 484 measured; the figures above this table are over all 484.

MLB hits allowed — measured field
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Balanced line	Hit rate there
Mason Fluharty	Blue Jays	53	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	23 of 53 (43%)
Brent Headrick	Yankees	52	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	26 of 52 (50%)
Adrian Morejon	Padres	51	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	24 of 51 (47%)
Brock Burke	Reds	51	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 51 (49%)
Aaron Ashby	Brewers	50	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	30 of 50 (60%)
Braydon Fisher	Blue Jays	49	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	24 of 49 (49%)
Brennan Bernardino	Rockies	49	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 49 (51%)
Hunter Gaddis	Guardians	49	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	24 of 49 (49%)
Kevin Ginkel	Diamondbacks	49	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	21 of 49 (43%)
Rico Garcia	Orioles	49	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	28 of 49 (57%)
Alex Vesia	Dodgers	48	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 48 (40%)
Andrew Morris	Twins	48	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	26 of 48 (54%)
Tejay Antone	Reds	48	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	29 of 48 (60%)
Tyler Alexander	Rangers	48	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	29 of 48 (60%)
Chase Silseth	Rangers	47	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	28 of 47 (60%)
Enyel De Los Santos	Astros	47	1.1 hits allowed	Over 0.5	29 of 47 (62%)
George Soriano	Cardinals	47	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 47 (53%)
Tyler Rogers	Blue Jays	47	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	27 of 47 (57%)
Bryan Abreu	Astros	46	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	21 of 46 (46%)
Calvin Faucher	Marlins	46	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	23 of 46 (50%)
Jeff Hoffman	Twins	46	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	21 of 46 (46%)
Justin Bruihl	Cardinals	46	1.2 hits allowed	Over 1.5	14 of 46 (30%)
Mason Montgomery	Pirates	46	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	15 of 46 (33%)
Yoendrys Gómez	Twins	46	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	22 of 46 (48%)
Yuki Matsui	Padres	46	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	24 of 46 (52%)
A.J. Minter	Twins	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 45 (56%)
Brandyn Garcia	Diamondbacks	45	0.5 hits allowed	Over 0.5	16 of 45 (36%)
Didier Fuentes	Braves	45	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	27 of 45 (60%)
Hogan Harris	Athletics	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	21 of 45 (47%)
Jhoan Duran	Phillies	45	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	28 of 45 (62%)
José A. Ferrer	Mariners	45	1.0 hits allowed	Over 0.5	27 of 45 (60%)
Kevin Kelly	Rays	45	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 45 (56%)
Louis Varland	Blue Jays	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 45 (56%)
Michael Petersen	Marlins	45	0.6 hits allowed	Over 0.5	19 of 45 (42%)
Paul Blackburn	Yankees	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	23 of 45 (51%)
Ryan Rolison	Cubs	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	28 of 45 (62%)
Ryan Zeferjahn	Cubs	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	23 of 45 (51%)
Ryne Stanek	Cardinals	45	0.7 hits allowed	Over 0.5	22 of 45 (49%)
Tanner Scott	Dodgers	45	0.9 hits allowed	Over 0.5	25 of 45 (56%)
Taylor Clarke	Diamondbacks	45	0.8 hits allowed	Over 0.5	23 of 45 (51%)

The steadiest MLB hits allowed records

Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.

The steadiest MLB hits allowed records
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Zac Thornton	Mets	11	5.6 hits allowed	1.2	22%
George Kirby	Mariners	19	6.9 hits allowed	1.7	24%
Shane Baz	Orioles	20	5.8 hits allowed	1.5	26%
Michael King	Padres	21	5.0 hits allowed	1.3	27%
Brandon Young	Orioles	20	5.8 hits allowed	1.6	28%
Gabriel Hughes	Rockies	14	4.9 hits allowed	1.4	29%
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	16	6.9 hits allowed	2.0	29%
Hunter Dobbins	Cardinals	10	4.6 hits allowed	1.4	29%
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics	17	5.5 hits allowed	1.6	30%
Aaron Nola	Phillies	21	5.1 hits allowed	1.5	30%

The widest MLB hits allowed swings

The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.

The widest MLB hits allowed swings
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Luke Murphy	Angels	18	1.0 hits allowed	1.5	145%
Jonathan Hernández	Dodgers	15	1.4 hits allowed	2.0	142%
Jordan Montgomery	Rangers	10	1.7 hits allowed	2.3	137%
Luis Mey	Reds	19	1.4 hits allowed	1.8	132%
Connor Thomas	Royals	15	1.9 hits allowed	2.5	130%
Steven Matz	Rays	24	1.6 hits allowed	2.1	130%
Nick Davila	Mariners	18	1.2 hits allowed	1.4	122%
Beau Brieske	Tigers	15	1.3 hits allowed	1.5	120%
Franco Aleman	Guardians	19	1.2 hits allowed	1.4	120%
Bennett Sousa	Astros	27	1.0 hits allowed	1.2	119%

The widest home and away gaps in MLB hits allowed

Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.

MLB hits allowed — venue gaps
Player	Club	Home (games)	Away (games)	Gap
Kyle Harrison	Brewers	3.0 (7)	6.7 (9)	3.7 away
Trevor McDonald	Giants	6.6 (5)	3.4 (5)	3.2 at home
Miles Mikolas	Nationals	4.6 (7)	7.7 (7)	3.1 away
Bryan Woo	Mariners	3.4 (7)	6.3 (12)	2.9 away
Kyle Bradish	Orioles	3.9 (8)	6.7 (11)	2.8 away
Davis Martin	White Sox	3.7 (10)	6.5 (8)	2.8 away
Freddy Peralta	Rays	4.0 (10)	6.7 (11)	2.7 away
Parker Messick	Guardians	5.8 (10)	3.4 (11)	2.4 at home
Matt Gage	Giants	0.4 (5)	2.8 (5)	2.4 away
Nathan Eovaldi	Rangers	4.1 (8)	6.4 (8)	2.3 away

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five

Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Daniel Lynch IV	Royals	4.0 hits allowed	1.4 over 34	189% above
Trevor Megill	Brewers	1.6 hits allowed	0.6 over 42	169% above
Craig Kimbrel	Royals	1.8 hits allowed	0.8 over 32	140% above
Orion Kerkering	Phillies	2.0 hits allowed	0.9 over 43	132% above
Samy Natera Jr.	Angels	1.8 hits allowed	0.8 over 28	129% above
Dylan Lee	Braves	1.8 hits allowed	0.8 over 44	126% above
Colin Holderman	Guardians	1.4 hits allowed	0.6 over 41	121% above
Yoendrys Gómez	Twins	1.8 hits allowed	0.8 over 46	118% above
David Bednar	Yankees	1.4 hits allowed	0.6 over 39	118% above
Danny Young	Braves	2.0 hits allowed	0.9 over 16	113% above

Behind their own baseline over the last five

The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.

Behind their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Jeff Hoffman	Twins	0.0 hits allowed	0.6 over 46	100% below
Yohan Ramírez	Pirates	0.0 hits allowed	0.8 over 43	100% below
Luis Medina	Athletics	0.0 hits allowed	1.1 over 42	100% below
Cam Booser	Rays	0.0 hits allowed	0.6 over 39	100% below
Kenley Jansen	Tigers	0.0 hits allowed	0.5 over 32	100% below
Erik Sabrowski	Guardians	0.0 hits allowed	0.6 over 32	100% below
Chase Shugart	Phillies	0.0 hits allowed	0.9 over 29	100% below
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pirates	0.4 hits allowed	2.8 over 25	86% below
Chad Patrick	Brewers	0.2 hits allowed	1.2 over 42	83% below
Austin Warren	Mets	0.2 hits allowed	1.1 over 27	83% below

Common questions

Where does the MLB hits allowed coin-flip line sit?

At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.

Is this a ranking of the best MLB hits allowed props?

No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.

How many games are behind each hits allowed figure?

The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.

Does a hits allowed trend on this page predict the next game?

No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.

What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.

MLB player props and live odds

Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.