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Across 285 MLB players with at least 10 logged games in home runs, this page measures 15276 games in total. The median player in that field averages 0.1 home runs. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 0.5 for the median of the 285 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Max Muncy, with 103 logged games. 285 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 285 measured; the figures above this table are over all 285.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | Dodgers | 103 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 18 of 103 (17%) |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | 80 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 13 of 80 (16%) |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 77 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 13 of 77 (17%) |
| Yandy Díaz | Rays | 76 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 11 of 76 (14%) |
| Jonathan Aranda | Rays | 74 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 74 (11%) |
| Jo Adell | Guardians | 73 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 10 of 73 (14%) |
| Matt Olson | Braves | 73 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 16 of 73 (22%) |
| Munetaka Murakami | White Sox | 73 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 14 of 73 (19%) |
| Ozzie Albies | Braves | 73 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 10 of 73 (14%) |
| Brice Turang | Brewers | 72 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 72 (11%) |
| Drake Baldwin | Braves | 72 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 72 (11%) |
| Michael Harris II | Braves | 72 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 11 of 72 (15%) |
| Garrett Mitchell | Brewers | 71 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 5 of 71 (7%) |
| Miguel Vargas | White Sox | 71 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 12 of 71 (17%) |
| Tristan Peters | White Sox | 71 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 6 of 71 (8%) |
| Austin Riley | Braves | 70 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 9 of 70 (13%) |
| Brayan Rocchio | Guardians | 70 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 5 of 70 (7%) |
| Jackson Merrill | Padres | 70 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 14 of 70 (20%) |
| Kyle Tucker | Dodgers | 70 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 11 of 70 (16%) |
| Manny Machado | Padres | 70 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 11 of 70 (16%) |
| Mookie Betts | Dodgers | 70 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 10 of 70 (14%) |
| Travis Bazzana | Guardians | 70 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 70 (11%) |
| William Contreras | Brewers | 70 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 12 of 70 (17%) |
| Braden Montgomery | White Sox | 69 | 0.0 home runs | Over 0.5 | 3 of 69 (4%) |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 69 | 0.3 home runs | Over 0.5 | 19 of 69 (28%) |
| Jake Bauers | Brewers | 69 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 9 of 69 (13%) |
| Liam Hicks | Rays | 69 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 6 of 69 (9%) |
| Teoscar Hernández | Dodgers | 69 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 9 of 69 (13%) |
| Tommy Edman | Dodgers | 69 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 7 of 69 (10%) |
| Colson Montgomery | White Sox | 68 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 9 of 68 (13%) |
| Jake Cronenworth | Padres | 68 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 4 of 68 (6%) |
| Ty France | Padres | 68 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 68 (12%) |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | 67 | 0.2 home runs | Over 0.5 | 13 of 67 (19%) |
| Bryce Harper | Phillies | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 10 of 67 (15%) |
| Chase Meidroth | White Sox | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 8 of 67 (12%) |
| Christian Yelich | Brewers | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 6 of 67 (9%) |
| Jonny DeLuca | Rays | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 5 of 67 (7%) |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Guardians | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 7 of 67 (10%) |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Cubs | 67 | 0.4 home runs | Over 0.5 | 18 of 67 (27%) |
| Xander Bogaerts | Padres | 67 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 5 of 67 (7%) |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen | Rangers | 0.0 (16) | 0.5 (10) | 0.5 away |
| Eugenio Suárez | Reds | 0.0 (25) | 0.4 (32) | 0.4 away |
| Randy Arozarena | Mariners | 0.1 (33) | 0.4 (31) | 0.3 away |
| Kyle Manzardo | Guardians | 0.1 (10) | 0.4 (5) | 0.3 away |
| Spencer Jones | Yankees | 0.0 (34) | 0.3 (27) | 0.3 away |
| Eduardo Valencia | Tigers | 0.3 (18) | 0.0 (19) | 0.3 at home |
| Josh Jung | Rangers | 0.3 (11) | 0.0 (5) | 0.3 at home |
| Tristan Peters | White Sox | 0.2 (33) | 0.0 (38) | 0.2 at home |
| Liam Hicks | Rays | 0.0 (30) | 0.2 (39) | 0.2 away |
| Ian Happ | Cubs | 0.0 (33) | 0.2 (32) | 0.2 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | Rockies | 0.4 home runs | 0.1 over 53 | 324% above |
| David Hamilton | Brewers | 0.2 home runs | 0.1 over 56 | 273% above |
| Gavin Sheets | Padres | 0.4 home runs | 0.1 over 37 | 270% above |
| Alec Burleson | Cardinals | 0.6 home runs | 0.2 over 65 | 255% above |
| Dylan Beavers | Orioles | 0.4 home runs | 0.1 over 60 | 243% above |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | 0.8 home runs | 0.2 over 67 | 235% above |
| Mike Trout | Angels | 0.2 home runs | 0.1 over 63 | 215% above |
| Cooper Pratt | Brewers | 0.2 home runs | 0.1 over 62 | 210% above |
| A.J. Ewing | Mets | 0.2 home runs | 0.1 over 62 | 210% above |
| Cole Carrigg | Rockies | 0.4 home runs | 0.1 over 61 | 205% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | Rays | 0.0 home runs | 0.2 over 80 | 100% below |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 0.0 home runs | 0.2 over 77 | 100% below |
| Yandy Díaz | Rays | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 76 | 100% below |
| Jonathan Aranda | Rays | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 74 | 100% below |
| Jo Adell | Guardians | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 73 | 100% below |
| Brice Turang | Brewers | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 72 | 100% below |
| Drake Baldwin | Braves | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 72 | 100% below |
| Garrett Mitchell | Brewers | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 71 | 100% below |
| Tristan Peters | White Sox | 0.0 home runs | 0.1 over 71 | 100% below |
| William Contreras | Brewers | 0.0 home runs | 0.2 over 70 | 100% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
MLB player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.