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Across 36 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in interceptions, this page measures 619 games in total. The median player in that field averages 0.6 interceptions. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 0.5 for the median of the 36 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 25 logged games. Of the 2 players whose spread can be measured, 0 cluster tightly around their average, 1 vary moderately and 1 swing widely. 36 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 25 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 15 of 25 (60%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 24 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 24 (46%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 22 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 22 (50%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 22 | 0.9 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 13 of 22 (59%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 8 of 21 (38%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 9 of 21 (43%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 21 | 0.6 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 8 of 21 (38%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 21 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 21 | 0.6 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 20 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 20 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 9 of 20 (45%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 20 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 0.4 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 7 of 20 (35%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 1.0 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 16 of 20 (80%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 19 | 0.6 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 8 of 19 (42%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 19 | 0.6 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 18 (61%) |
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 18 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 18 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 17 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 17 | 0.9 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 12 of 17 (71%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 16 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 4 of 16 (25%) |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 14 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 6 of 14 (43%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 14 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 6 of 14 (43%) |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 13 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 8 of 13 (62%) |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 12 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 5 of 12 (42%) |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 12 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 11 | 0.6 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 11 | 0.3 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 3 of 11 (27%) |
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 11 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 4 of 11 (36%) |
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 11 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 4 of 11 (36%) |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 11 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 11 | 0.9 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 1.2 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 7 of 10 (70%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 1.0 interceptions | 0.6 | 63% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 1.2 interceptions | 1.1 | 90% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 1.2 interceptions | 1.1 | 90% |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 1.0 interceptions | 0.6 | 63% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 1.5 (6) | 0.3 (8) | 1.2 at home |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 0.1 (9) | 1.1 (10) | 1.0 away |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 1.1 (11) | 0.3 (10) | 0.8 at home |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 0.1 (7) | 0.8 (9) | 0.7 away |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 0.3 (12) | 0.9 (9) | 0.6 away |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 0.2 (6) | 0.8 (6) | 0.6 away |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 0.8 (6) | 0.2 (6) | 0.6 at home |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 0.2 (5) | 0.8 (6) | 0.6 away |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 0.4 (10) | 0.9 (14) | 0.5 away |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 0.6 (9) | 1.0 (9) | 0.4 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 1.0 interceptions | 0.5 over 12 | 100% above |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 0.8 interceptions | 0.5 over 20 | 78% above |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 1.2 interceptions | 0.8 over 20 | 60% above |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 0.8 interceptions | 0.5 over 12 | 60% above |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 1.4 interceptions | 0.9 over 22 | 54% above |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 0.8 interceptions | 0.5 over 21 | 53% above |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 1.0 interceptions | 0.7 over 21 | 40% above |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 0.8 interceptions | 0.6 over 21 | 40% above |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 1.4 interceptions | 1.0 over 20 | 40% above |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 1.2 interceptions | 0.9 over 17 | 27% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 0.0 interceptions | 0.5 over 11 | 100% below |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 0.0 interceptions | 0.5 over 11 | 100% below |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 0.2 interceptions | 0.5 over 22 | 63% below |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 0.2 interceptions | 0.5 over 14 | 60% below |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 0.4 interceptions | 0.9 over 11 | 56% below |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 0.4 interceptions | 0.8 over 13 | 53% below |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 0.6 interceptions | 1.2 over 10 | 50% below |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 0.4 interceptions | 0.8 over 17 | 48% below |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 0.4 interceptions | 0.6 over 19 | 37% below |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 0.4 interceptions | 0.6 over 11 | 37% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.