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Across 38 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in pass attempts, this page measures 641 games in total. The median player in that field averages 29.5 pass attempts. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 29.5 for the median of the 38 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 25 logged games. Of the 37 players whose spread can be measured, 26 cluster tightly around their average, 9 vary moderately and 2 swing widely. 38 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 25 | 29.2 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 12 of 25 (48%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 24 | 36.6 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 13 of 24 (54%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 22 | 35.0 pass attempts | Over 32.5 | 12 of 22 (55%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 22 | 29.3 pass attempts | Over 28.5 | 11 of 22 (50%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21 | 33.9 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 34.4 pass attempts | Over 34.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 21 | 35.3 pass attempts | Over 34.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 21 | 33.6 pass attempts | Over 30.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 29.4 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 21 | 30.7 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 20 | 32.6 pass attempts | Over 32.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 20 | 31.2 pass attempts | Over 32.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 20 | 39.5 pass attempts | Over 37.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 35.3 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 30.0 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 9 of 20 (45%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 19 | 33.7 pass attempts | Over 32.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 19 | 29.3 pass attempts | Over 28.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 28.5 pass attempts | Over 28.5 | 8 of 18 (44%) |
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 18 | 32.1 pass attempts | Over 31.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 18 | 35.2 pass attempts | Over 34.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 17 | 29.7 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 17 | 31.5 pass attempts | Over 30.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 34.2 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 16 | 29.4 pass attempts | Over 27.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 14 | 37.1 pass attempts | Over 35.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 14 | 21.7 pass attempts | Over 20.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 13 | 23.5 pass attempts | Over 23.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 12 | 20.3 pass attempts | Over 21.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 12 | 29.2 pass attempts | Over 31.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Taysom Hill | Saints | 12 | 0.4 pass attempts | Over 0.5 | 4 of 12 (33%) |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 11 | 21.1 pass attempts | Over 22.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 11 | 26.2 pass attempts | Over 29.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 11 | 27.5 pass attempts | Over 25.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 11 | 14.9 pass attempts | Over 0.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 11 | 20.9 pass attempts | Over 16.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 11 | 22.4 pass attempts | Over 22.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 23.7 pass attempts | Over 21.5 | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Tyler Huntley | Ravens | 10 | 17.7 pass attempts | Over 15.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 17 | 29.7 pass attempts | 4.1 | 14% |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 34.4 pass attempts | 5.3 | 15% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 34.2 pass attempts | 6.5 | 19% |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 29.4 pass attempts | 6.0 | 20% |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 14 | 37.1 pass attempts | 7.3 | 20% |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 22 | 35.0 pass attempts | 7.3 | 21% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 20 | 39.5 pass attempts | 8.5 | 21% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 12 | 29.2 pass attempts | 6.5 | 22% |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 35.3 pass attempts | 7.9 | 22% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21 | 33.9 pass attempts | 7.8 | 23% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 11 | 14.9 pass attempts | 16.2 | 109% |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 11 | 21.1 pass attempts | 16.4 | 78% |
| Tyler Huntley | Ravens | 10 | 17.7 pass attempts | 11.5 | 65% |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 11 | 20.9 pass attempts | 13.1 | 63% |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 11 | 22.4 pass attempts | 12.0 | 54% |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 12 | 20.3 pass attempts | 10.4 | 52% |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 13 | 23.5 pass attempts | 9.9 | 42% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 14 | 21.7 pass attempts | 9.0 | 41% |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 28.5 pass attempts | 11.0 | 38% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 23.7 pass attempts | 9.0 | 38% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 29.5 (6) | 18.4 (7) | 11.1 at home |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 25.6 (12) | 33.8 (10) | 8.2 away |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 33.0 (10) | 25.1 (9) | 7.9 at home |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 17.8 (6) | 25.0 (5) | 7.2 away |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 41.0 (6) | 34.1 (8) | 6.9 at home |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 23.7 (6) | 16.8 (6) | 6.9 at home |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 31.2 (12) | 37.4 (9) | 6.2 away |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 25.2 (6) | 19.1 (8) | 6.1 at home |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 24.2 (5) | 18.2 (6) | 6.0 at home |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 38.0 (9) | 32.3 (9) | 5.7 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | Ravens | 22.0 pass attempts | 17.7 over 10 | 24% above |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 24.4 pass attempts | 20.3 over 12 | 20% above |
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 32.4 pass attempts | 27.5 over 11 | 18% above |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 37.4 pass attempts | 32.6 over 20 | 15% above |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 32.8 pass attempts | 29.3 over 22 | 12% above |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 37.4 pass attempts | 33.6 over 21 | 11% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 0.8 pass attempts | 14.9 over 11 | 95% below |
| Taysom Hill | Saints | 0.2 pass attempts | 0.4 over 12 | 52% below |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 15.8 pass attempts | 22.4 over 11 | 29% below |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 22.8 pass attempts | 28.5 over 18 | 20% below |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 16.8 pass attempts | 20.9 over 11 | 20% below |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 19.0 pass attempts | 23.7 over 10 | 20% below |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 17.6 pass attempts | 21.1 over 11 | 17% below |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 21.8 pass attempts | 26.2 over 11 | 17% below |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 30.4 pass attempts | 35.0 over 22 | 13% below |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 20.8 pass attempts | 23.5 over 13 | 12% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.