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302 MLB players have a hits prop posted for the next 3 days, and 302 of them carry at least 10 logged games here. Otto Lopez leads the measured field at 1.2 hits over 200 games, against a median of 0.8 across the priced field. That ordering is measured history, not tonight’s value — the live board above ranks the same players by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
Averages over each player's logged games, from official box scores. This is history, not a ranking of tonight’s props — the live board above is ordered by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
| Player | Team | Games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | Marlins | 200 | 1.2 | Over 1.5 | 66 of 200 (33%) |
| Luis Arraez | Phillies | 200 | 1.2 | Over 1.5 | 69 of 200 (35%) |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 205 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 140 of 205 (68%) |
| Freddie Freeman | Dodgers | 221 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 153 of 221 (69%) |
| Gabriel Moreno | Diamondbacks | 167 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 55 of 167 (33%) |
| Jung Hoo Lee | Giants | 187 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 123 of 187 (66%) |
| Alec Burleson | Cardinals | 200 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 137 of 200 (69%) |
| Bo Bichette | Mets | 197 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 136 of 197 (69%) |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | 187 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 53 of 187 (28%) |
| Brett Bateman | Blue Jays | 51 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 36 of 51 (71%) |
| Chandler Simpson | Rays | 197 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 66 of 197 (34%) |
| Chase DeLauter | Guardians | 144 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 96 of 144 (67%) |
| Drake Baldwin | Braves | 184 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 60 of 184 (33%) |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 166 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 114 of 166 (69%) |
| Josh Jung | Rangers | 146 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 99 of 146 (68%) |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | 205 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 147 of 205 (72%) |
| Nick Gonzales | Pirates | 195 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 64 of 195 (33%) |
| Nico Hoerner | Cubs | 216 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 153 of 216 (71%) |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | 151 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 108 of 151 (72%) |
| Trevor Story | Red Sox | 117 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 83 of 117 (71%) |
MLB hits props across the whole slate. 302 players currently have a hits line posted, and each is scored against their own game log at the exact line on offer, shrunk toward a league prior, then compared with the price. The table loads live so the lines and prices are the ones on offer now. Most of any board clears none of the research bar, and when that is true this page says so rather than ranking the least-bad options.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
Every hits prop on the slate is scored the same way — the player's own game log against the exact line on offer, shrunk for sample size, compared with the price — and the table on this page orders them by that estimate. It loads live, so it is the slate as it stands now rather than a saved list.
As the share of logged games in which the player finished above the exact line a book is offering, over the deepest window available, then shrunk toward a league prior. The shrinkage is why a three-for-three player does not top this table: a three-game denominator admits only four possible answers and none of them is a measurement.
Because props only exist once a book has priced the game, and between a slate finishing and the next being posted there is a real window with no hits lines at all. The page also refuses to pad itself: when nothing clears the research bar it says so rather than filling the space with the least-bad options.
No, not on its own. A prop that clears its line seven times in ten, at a price implying it should clear three times in four, loses money over the long run. The hit rate answers how often; the price answers what you are paid for it; only the two together say anything at all — and the sportsbook margin sits between them either way.
How MLB prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.