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299 MLB players have a home runs prop posted for the next 3 days, and 299 of them carry at least 10 logged games here. Hunter Goodman leads the measured field at 0.3 home runs over 188 games, against a median of 0.1 across the priced field. That ordering is measured history, not tonight’s value — the live board above ranks the same players by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
Averages over each player's logged games, from official box scores. This is history, not a ranking of tonight’s props — the live board above is ordered by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
| Player | Team | Games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman | Rockies | 188 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 39 of 188 (21%) |
| Juan Soto | Mets | 156 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 38 of 156 (24%) |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | 205 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 47 of 205 (23%) |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | 204 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 50 of 204 (25%) |
| Matt Olson | Braves | 215 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 52 of 215 (24%) |
| Munetaka Murakami | White Sox | 131 | 0.3 | Over 0.5 | 31 of 131 (24%) |
| Adael Amador | Rockies | 35 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 6 of 35 (17%) |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | 208 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 49 of 208 (24%) |
| Cal Raleigh | Mariners | 182 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 38 of 182 (21%) |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 205 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 28 of 205 (14%) |
| Griffin Conine | Marlins | 108 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 19 of 108 (18%) |
| Jackson Merrill | Padres | 201 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 34 of 201 (17%) |
| Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | 180 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 27 of 180 (15%) |
| Kody Clemens | Twins | 191 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 29 of 191 (15%) |
| Kyle Stowers | Marlins | 124 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 16 of 124 (13%) |
| Manny Machado | Padres | 203 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 36 of 203 (18%) |
| Max Muncy | Dodgers | 295 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 46 of 295 (16%) |
| Mookie Betts | Dodgers | 185 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 28 of 185 (15%) |
| Nolan Arenado | Diamondbacks | 169 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 28 of 169 (17%) |
| Randy Arozarena | Mariners | 213 | 0.2 | Over 0.5 | 31 of 213 (15%) |
MLB home runs props across the whole slate. 299 players currently have a home runs line posted, and each is scored against their own game log at the exact line on offer, shrunk toward a league prior, then compared with the price. The table loads live so the lines and prices are the ones on offer now. Most of any board clears none of the research bar, and when that is true this page says so rather than ranking the least-bad options.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Every home runs prop on the slate is scored the same way — the player's own game log against the exact line on offer, shrunk for sample size, compared with the price — and the table on this page orders them by that estimate. It loads live, so it is the slate as it stands now rather than a saved list.
As the share of logged games in which the player finished above the exact line a book is offering, over the deepest window available, then shrunk toward a league prior. The shrinkage is why a three-for-three player does not top this table: a three-game denominator admits only four possible answers and none of them is a measurement.
Because props only exist once a book has priced the game, and between a slate finishing and the next being posted there is a real window with no home runs lines at all. The page also refuses to pad itself: when nothing clears the research bar it says so rather than filling the space with the least-bad options.
No, not on its own. A prop that clears its line seven times in ten, at a price implying it should clear three times in four, loses money over the long run. The hit rate answers how often; the price answers what you are paid for it; only the two together say anything at all — and the sportsbook margin sits between them either way.
How MLB prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.