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With no line posted, over 51 MLB games since July 2026, Carson Kelly has gone over a balanced line of 0.5 hits 29 times (57%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 0.8 hits across those 51 games. Their last 5 average 0.2, 74% below their 0.8 this season (51 games). These are measured box-score results from Chicago Cubs games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | 51 | 0.8 hits | Over 0.5 | 29 of 51 (57%) |
| Home Runs | 51 | 0.1 home runs | Over 0.5 | 4 of 51 (8%) |
| RBIs | 51 | 0.5 RBIs | Over 0.5 | 16 of 51 (31%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | Over 0.5 | 29 of 51 (57%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Hits | Over 1.5 | 8 of 51 (16%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Home Runs | Over 0.5 | 4 of 51 (8%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| RBIs | Over 0.5 | 16 of 51 (31%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| RBIs | Over 1.5 | 7 of 51 (14%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
Every market measured for Carson Kelly, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Hits | Home Runs | RBIs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | San Diego Padres | Away | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | San Diego Padres | Away | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Miami Marlins | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | Miami Marlins | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Miami Marlins | Home | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Cincinnati Reds | Away | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Cincinnati Reds | Away | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Milwaukee Brewers | Away | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Milwaukee Brewers | Away | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Counted from the same 51 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Hits |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 0 |
| Median | 1 |
| 75th percentile | 1 |
| Highest logged game | 3 |
43 of 51 games (84%) landed between 0 and 1; 29 (57%) finished at or above the 1 median, and the spread from 0 to 3 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Carson Kelly actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 21 | 0.6 |
| August 2026 | 20 | 1 |
| July 2026 | 10 | 0.6 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 32 | 0.6 |
| 2 days | 14 | 1.2 |
| 3 to 4 days | 4 | 0.8 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Most-faced in this log is Milwaukee Brewers, 6 games at 1, best of 3. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 1 median rather than a posted line, Carson Kelly's longest run at or above it is 3 games and the run open at the newest of the 51 is 1. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
Carson Kelly has gone over 0.5 hits in 29 of 51 logged games (57%).
At home they average 0.8 over 27 games; away, 0.7 over 24.
Carson Kelly hits: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Carson Kelly has gone over 0.5 home runs in 4 of 51 logged games (8%).
At home they average 0.1 over 27 games; away, 0.0 over 24.
Carson Kelly has gone over 0.5 RBIs in 16 of 51 logged games (31%).
At home they average 0.6 over 27 games; away, 0.4 over 24.
Carson Kelly RBIs: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop history for Carson Kelly of the Chicago Cubs. Nothing is priced right now, so what follows is the record in Hits, Home Runs and RBIs: how often they have finished above each line their own game log supports, what their average looks like at home and away, and how much they have moved lately against their own baseline. Every figure is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game they actually played, and rebuilt daily. None of it is a forecast, and none of it is compared with a price: when the books post this market again the live board appears at the top of this page.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Not while the MLB board is down. This page keeps the measured history in the meantime and the live board reappears at the top of it the morning after the books post this market: the address does not change, so a bookmark or a link keeps working.
How often they finished above each line their own distribution supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, with the game count printed beside every rate. A percentage without a denominator is not a measurement, so none appears here without one.
No. It is a record of games that have been played, and it is not compared with any price because no price is posted. Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets.
How MLB prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.