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Over 169 logged MLB games, Nolan Arenado has gone over 0.5 home runs 28 times (17%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 0.2 home runs across those 169 games. Their last 5 average 0.2, 13% above their 0.2 across the full log. They have gone under 0.5 in each of their last 3. Against the New York Yankees in this log they have 3 games, averaging 0.0. These are measured box-score results from Arizona Diamondbacks games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 169 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 home runs | 28 of 169 (17%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Nolan Arenado right now — the live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Nolan Arenado has averaged 0.2 home runs over their last 5, 13% above their 0.2 across all 169 logged games.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0.2 home runs |
| Last 10 games | 0.4 home runs |
| All 169 logged games | 0.2 home runs |
| Best in the log | 2 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (91 games) | 0.2 home runs |
| Away (78 games) | 0.2 home runs |
Nolan Arenado has 3 logged games against the New York Yankees, averaging 0.0 home runs with a high of 0. Most recent first, those games read 0, 0, 0. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Home Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | New York Yankees | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | New York Yankees | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Miami Marlins | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Miami Marlins | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Miami Marlins | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Texas Rangers | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Texas Rangers | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Texas Rangers | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Kansas City Royals | Away | 1 |
Every home runs prop the books have posted for Nolan Arenado of the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the MLB game log the number is drawn from. The history below — game by game, split home and away — is measured from official box scores and rebuilt daily. The line and the price load live rather than being printed here, because they change through the day. What the page will not do is tell you the bet wins: it shows you the sample and the price and stops there.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below, and shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin that sample is. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they actually played.
All Nolan Arenado props and hit rates · Every MLB home runs prop
How MLB prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.