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28 NBA players have a steals prop posted for the next 7 days, and 28 of them carry at least 10 logged games here. Ausar Thompson leads the measured field at 2.0 steals over 87 games, against a median of 1.2 across the priced field. That ordering is measured history, not tonight’s value — the live board above ranks the same players by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
Averages over each player's logged games, from official box scores. This is history, not a ranking of tonight’s props — the live board above is ordered by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
| Player | Team | Games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 87 | 2.0 | Over 1.5 | 50 of 87 (57%) |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 92 | 2.0 | Over 1.5 | 54 of 92 (59%) |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 81 | 1.7 | Over 1.5 | 36 of 81 (44%) |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 14 | 1.6 | Over 1.5 | 6 of 14 (43%) |
| Trey Murphy III | Pelicans | 66 | 1.5 | Over 1.5 | 30 of 66 (45%) |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 84 | 1.5 | Over 1.5 | 40 of 84 (48%) |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 83 | 1.4 | Over 1.5 | 33 of 83 (40%) |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 78 | 1.4 | Over 1.5 | 29 of 78 (37%) |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 86 | 1.4 | Over 1.5 | 38 of 86 (44%) |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | 85 | 1.3 | Over 1.5 | 34 of 85 (40%) |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 22 | 1.3 | Over 1.5 | 9 of 22 (41%) |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 93 | 1.2 | Over 1.5 | 31 of 93 (33%) |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 38 | 1.2 | Over 1.5 | 15 of 38 (39%) |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 101 | 1.2 | Over 1.5 | 39 of 101 (39%) |
| Toumani Camara | Trail Blazers | 87 | 1.2 | Over 0.5 | 59 of 87 (68%) |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 84 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 55 of 84 (65%) |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 43 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 30 of 43 (70%) |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 91 | 1.1 | Over 0.5 | 60 of 91 (66%) |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 62 | 1.1 | Over 1.5 | 24 of 62 (39%) |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 86 | 1.0 | Over 0.5 | 57 of 86 (66%) |
| Across the field | Average |
|---|---|
| Lowest | 0.5 |
| Median | 1.2 |
| Highest | 2 |
The priced field runs from 0.5 to 2 steals a game, with the middle at 1.2 over 28 players.
| Line | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1353 of 1977 | 68% |
| Over 1.5 | 692 of 1977 | 35% |
| Over 2.5 | 279 of 1977 | 14% |
Pooled across all 1977 logged games behind those 28 players, not any one of them — a pooled rate is the field's, and an individual player's own ladder is on their page.
NBA steals props across the whole slate. 28 players currently have a steals line posted, and each is scored against their own game log at the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward it. The table loads live so the lines and prices are the ones on offer now. Most of any board clears none of the research bar, and when that is true this page says so rather than ranking the least-bad options.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Every steals prop on the slate is scored the same way: the player's own game log against the exact line on offer, shrunk for sample size, compared with the price, and the table on this page orders them by that estimate. It loads live, so it is the slate as it stands now rather than a saved list.
As the share of logged games in which the player finished above the exact line a book is offering, over the deepest window available, then pulled toward the price before the two are compared. The shrinkage is why a three-for-three player does not top this table: a three-game denominator admits only four possible answers and none of them is a measurement.
Because props only exist once a book has priced the game, and between a slate finishing and the next being posted there is a real window with no steals lines at all. The page also refuses to pad itself: when nothing clears the research bar it says so rather than filling the space with the least-bad options.
No, not on its own. A prop that clears its line seven times in ten, at a price implying it should clear three times in four, loses money over the long run. The hit rate answers how often; the price answers what you are paid for it; only the two together say anything at all, and the sportsbook margin sits between them either way.
How NBA prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.