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Over 15 logged NFL games, Zach Ertz has gone over 37.5 receiving yards 8 times (53%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 36.7 receiving yards across those 15 games. Their last 5 average 44.4, 21% above their 36.7 across the full log. These are measured box-score results from Philadelphia Eagles games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 15 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yards | 13 of 15 (87%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 16.5 receiving yards | 11 of 15 (73%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 37.5 receiving yards | 8 of 15 (53%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 42.5 receiving yards | 5 of 15 (33%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 54.5 receiving yards | 2 of 15 (13%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Zach Ertz right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Zach Ertz has averaged 44.4 receiving yards over their last 5, 21% above their 36.7 across all 15 logged games.
Zach Ertz's receiving yards varies moderately, a standard deviation of 25.3 around 36.7. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 44.4 receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 36.4 receiving yards |
| All 15 logged games | 36.7 receiving yards |
| Best in the log | 106 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (6 games) | 40.8 receiving yards |
| Away (9 games) | 34.0 receiving yards |
Zach Ertz's highest in this log is 106 receiving yards against the Denver Broncos on 2025-12-01, and the lowest is 0 against the Los Angeles Chargers on 2025-10-05. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 37.5 receiving yards |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 6 (83%) |
| On the road | 3 of 9 (33%) |
Zach Ertz has cleared 37.5 receiving yards 50 points more often at home, 83% in 6 home games against 33% in 9 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Chicago Bears | Away | 9 |
| 2025-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 11 |
| 2025-12-01 | Denver Broncos | Away | 106 |
| 2025-11-16 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 42 |
| 2025-11-09 | Detroit Lions | Home | 54 |
| 2025-11-03 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 46 |
| 2025-10-28 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 16 |
| 2025-10-19 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 37 |
| 2025-10-14 | Chicago Bears | Home | 43 |
| 2025-10-05 | Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 0 |
Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles in receiving yards, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. There is no line and no price on this page because none is posted; when one is, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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There is none posted at the moment, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Zach Ertz props and hit rates
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.