This page is loading — it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
10 NFL props out of 62 posted across 13 scheduled games are ranked below as of 2026-09-20. Ordered by how far the player’s measured history sits from the price the book was showing when this page was built — shrunk for sample size, with the book’s margin still in the comparison, and not a forecast of the result. The deepest record on the list is Tony Pollard’s, at 16 logged games. Every row shows the games behind it, because a rate without a denominator is not evidence.
Ranked highest first. The last two columns are counted from official box scores and are rebuilt daily; the balanced threshold is measured from the player’s own distribution, not read off a book, and it is stated as an over in every row whichever side is ranked. No price appears in this table — prices move through the day and load live below.
| # | Player | Game | Prop | Logged games | Average | At a balanced line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Under receptions | 11 | 0.0 receptions | — |
| 2 | Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders | Over receptions | 11 | 6.5 receptions | 5 of 11 over 5.5 (45%) |
| 3 | Woody Marks | Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals | Over rush attempts | 13 | 15.6 carries | 7 of 13 over 14.5 (54%) |
| 4 | Tony Pollard | Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles | Under receptions | 16 | 0.0 receptions | — |
| 5 | Woody Marks | Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals | Under receptions | 13 | 0.0 receptions | — |
| 6 | J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Over rush attempts | 10 | 15.3 carries | 6 of 10 over 14.5 (60%) |
| 7 | Hunter Henry | New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Over receptions | 11 | 4.7 receptions | 4 of 11 over 4.5 (36%) |
| 8 | Kyle Pitts | Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers | Over receptions | 14 | 5.8 receptions | 8 of 14 over 5.5 (57%) |
| 9 | Tony Pollard | Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles | Over rushing yards | 16 | 66.5 rushing yards | 9 of 16 over 56.5 (56%) |
| 10 | Woody Marks | Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals | Over rushing yards | 13 | 56.5 rushing yards | 7 of 13 over 62.5 (54%) |
The next scheduled NFL game is 2026-09-21. The most recent game in the box scores is 2026-09-18. Books post player props for a specific game somewhere between the evening before and a few hours before it starts, so a league can be firmly in season and still show an empty board in the morning.
112 NFL players have a deep enough game log for this site to measure them, counted from 8,120 logged player-games. The deepest fields are Anytime Touchdown (104), Receiving Yards (56), Receptions (56). Measured over games played between 2025-09-05 and 2026-09-18.
Football is one game a week, so the ten-game floor is most of a season and spans over two months of calendar. That is why an NFL page ranks fewer props than a basketball one on a comparable slate: fewer players clear a floor that takes half a year to reach, and a rate here is measured over games that are genuinely far apart. The floor itself is the same everywhere on this site — 10 logged games before a prop can be ranked at all — because a rate over fewer games than that admits too few values to separate a real gap from a run of luck.
This page ranks the NFL player props the books have posted, using the same model that ranks the live board: each player’s own game log measured against the line on offer, shrunk toward a league prior so a short hot run cannot pass for an edge. It is rebuilt once a day and it says the date it was built. It is one address that stays the same all year — in season, out of season, and on the mornings before the books have opened a single market.
The ones ranked highest on this page: props where the player’s measured record, shrunk for how thin the sample is, sits ahead of the price the book was showing when the page was built. The ranking is dated at the top of the page and the live board beneath it carries the current order, the prices and the books. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a bet.
By one number: the gap between the model’s shrunk estimate of how often the player clears the line and what the posted price implies. A prop needs at least 10 logged games before it is ranked at all, because a hit rate over fewer games than that admits too many values to separate a real edge from a run of luck. Football is one game a week, so the ten-game floor is most of a season and spans over two months of calendar.
Because the board moved. Books repost lines, pull them and reprice them all day, and a prop whose price has changed is a different prop from the one that was ranked. The page is rebuilt daily and states the date it was built; the live board underneath it is re-read every time the page loads.
No. Every figure here is measured history and an estimate derived from it, and past performance does not predict future results. Parlay Builder is research: it does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets, and it publishes no locks and promises no outcome.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine. Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
How Parlay Builder scores props, in full
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.