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Across 484 MLB players with at least 10 logged games in strikeouts, this page measures 12258 games in total. The median player in that field averages 1.3 strikeouts. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 1.5 for the median of the 484 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Mason Fluharty, with 53 logged games. Of the 354 players whose spread can be measured, 27 cluster tightly around their average, 177 vary moderately and 150 swing widely. 482 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 484 measured; the figures above this table are over all 484.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | Blue Jays | 53 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 31 of 53 (58%) |
| Brent Headrick | Yankees | 52 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 19 of 52 (37%) |
| Adrian Morejon | Padres | 51 | 1.4 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 22 of 51 (43%) |
| Brock Burke | Reds | 51 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 32 of 51 (63%) |
| Aaron Ashby | Brewers | 50 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 21 of 50 (42%) |
| Braydon Fisher | Blue Jays | 49 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 34 of 49 (69%) |
| Brennan Bernardino | Rockies | 49 | 0.7 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 24 of 49 (49%) |
| Hunter Gaddis | Guardians | 49 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 32 of 49 (65%) |
| Kevin Ginkel | Diamondbacks | 49 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 29 of 49 (59%) |
| Rico Garcia | Orioles | 49 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 29 of 49 (59%) |
| Alex Vesia | Dodgers | 48 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 32 of 48 (67%) |
| Andrew Morris | Twins | 48 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 28 of 48 (58%) |
| Tejay Antone | Reds | 48 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 30 of 48 (63%) |
| Tyler Alexander | Rangers | 48 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 30 of 48 (63%) |
| Chase Silseth | Rangers | 47 | 1.1 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 14 of 47 (30%) |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Astros | 47 | 1.1 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 31 of 47 (66%) |
| George Soriano | Cardinals | 47 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 32 of 47 (68%) |
| Tyler Rogers | Blue Jays | 47 | 0.5 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 21 of 47 (45%) |
| Bryan Abreu | Astros | 46 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 20 of 46 (43%) |
| Calvin Faucher | Marlins | 46 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 31 of 46 (67%) |
| Jeff Hoffman | Twins | 46 | 1.4 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 19 of 46 (41%) |
| Justin Bruihl | Cardinals | 46 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 27 of 46 (59%) |
| Mason Montgomery | Pirates | 46 | 1.6 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 27 of 46 (59%) |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Twins | 46 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 33 of 46 (72%) |
| Yuki Matsui | Padres | 46 | 1.2 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 15 of 46 (33%) |
| A.J. Minter | Twins | 45 | 0.9 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 29 of 45 (64%) |
| Brandyn Garcia | Diamondbacks | 45 | 1.1 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 14 of 45 (31%) |
| Didier Fuentes | Braves | 45 | 1.5 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 19 of 45 (42%) |
| Hogan Harris | Athletics | 45 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 17 of 45 (38%) |
| Jhoan Duran | Phillies | 45 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 19 of 45 (42%) |
| José A. Ferrer | Mariners | 45 | 0.6 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 24 of 45 (53%) |
| Kevin Kelly | Rays | 45 | 1.0 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 28 of 45 (62%) |
| Louis Varland | Blue Jays | 45 | 1.2 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 16 of 45 (36%) |
| Michael Petersen | Marlins | 45 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 15 of 45 (33%) |
| Paul Blackburn | Yankees | 45 | 1.2 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 16 of 45 (36%) |
| Ryan Rolison | Cubs | 45 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 24 of 45 (53%) |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Cubs | 45 | 1.4 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 20 of 45 (44%) |
| Ryne Stanek | Cardinals | 45 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 30 of 45 (67%) |
| Tanner Scott | Dodgers | 45 | 1.3 strikeouts | Over 1.5 | 17 of 45 (38%) |
| Taylor Clarke | Diamondbacks | 45 | 0.8 strikeouts | Over 0.5 | 26 of 45 (58%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | Mets | 18 | 6.1 strikeouts | 1.5 | 24% |
| Hunter Dobbins | Cardinals | 10 | 4.8 strikeouts | 1.2 | 24% |
| Logan Henderson | Brewers | 12 | 6.4 strikeouts | 1.6 | 25% |
| Max Meyer | Marlins | 10 | 6.1 strikeouts | 1.5 | 25% |
| Robert Gasser | Brewers | 19 | 4.8 strikeouts | 1.4 | 28% |
| Chris Sale | Braves | 16 | 7.4 strikeouts | 2.1 | 29% |
| Hayden Wesneski | Astros | 10 | 4.1 strikeouts | 1.2 | 30% |
| Bryan Woo | Mariners | 19 | 5.9 strikeouts | 1.7 | 30% |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers | 18 | 8.6 strikeouts | 2.6 | 30% |
| Logan Gilbert | Mariners | 19 | 6.9 strikeouts | 2.1 | 30% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Gamboa | Red Sox | 18 | 1.1 strikeouts | 1.3 | 124% |
| Angel Chivilli | Yankees | 13 | 1.0 strikeouts | 1.2 | 118% |
| José Suarez | Athletics | 33 | 1.1 strikeouts | 1.2 | 116% |
| Fernando Cruz | Yankees | 37 | 1.0 strikeouts | 1.2 | 116% |
| Gordon Graceffo | Cardinals | 38 | 1.3 strikeouts | 1.4 | 114% |
| Huascar Brazobán | White Sox | 35 | 1.0 strikeouts | 1.1 | 112% |
| Mitchell Parker | Nationals | 11 | 1.3 strikeouts | 1.4 | 112% |
| Erik Tolman | Nationals | 11 | 1.1 strikeouts | 1.2 | 107% |
| Andrew Morris | Twins | 48 | 1.0 strikeouts | 1.0 | 104% |
| Casey Legumina | Rays | 38 | 1.1 strikeouts | 1.1 | 103% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Diamondbacks | 5.0 (4) | 1.7 (6) | 3.3 at home |
| Kyle Harrison | Brewers | 6.3 (7) | 3.7 (9) | 2.6 at home |
| Logan Gilbert | Mariners | 8.1 (10) | 5.6 (9) | 2.5 at home |
| Justin Wrobleski | Dodgers | 6.4 (8) | 4.1 (9) | 2.3 at home |
| Eury Pérez | Marlins | 4.3 (7) | 6.6 (10) | 2.3 away |
| Will Warren | Yankees | 5.4 (8) | 3.2 (13) | 2.2 at home |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers | 9.7 (9) | 7.6 (9) | 2.1 at home |
| Tatsuya Imai | Astros | 5.3 (9) | 3.3 (7) | 2.0 at home |
| Reid Detmers | Angels | 7.5 (13) | 5.6 (8) | 1.9 at home |
| Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 8.0 (10) | 6.1 (11) | 1.9 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | Royals | 2.2 strikeouts | 0.8 over 34 | 188% above |
| Juan Mejia | Rockies | 1.8 strikeouts | 0.9 over 41 | 111% above |
| Brennan Bernardino | Rockies | 1.4 strikeouts | 0.7 over 49 | 102% above |
| Anthony Gose | Royals | 0.8 strikeouts | 0.4 over 10 | 100% above |
| Drew Anderson | Tigers | 4.4 strikeouts | 2.2 over 32 | 98% above |
| Jacob Waguespack | Tigers | 1.8 strikeouts | 0.9 over 33 | 92% above |
| Brenan Hanifee | Tigers | 0.6 strikeouts | 0.3 over 16 | 92% above |
| Kevin Kelly | Rays | 1.8 strikeouts | 1.0 over 45 | 80% above |
| Taylor Rogers | Twins | 1.6 strikeouts | 0.9 over 42 | 77% above |
| Danny Young | Braves | 1.6 strikeouts | 0.9 over 16 | 71% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sterner | Athletics | 0.0 strikeouts | 0.7 over 22 | 100% below |
| Danny Coulombe | Red Sox | 0.0 strikeouts | 0.3 over 17 | 100% below |
| Evan Sisk | Pirates | 0.2 strikeouts | 1.0 over 22 | 81% below |
| Tyron Guerrero | Red Sox | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.9 over 37 | 79% below |
| Matt Svanson | Cardinals | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.9 over 18 | 79% below |
| Alimber Santa | Astros | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.9 over 10 | 78% below |
| Bennett Sousa | Astros | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.9 over 27 | 77% below |
| Ryan Rolison | Cubs | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.8 over 45 | 76% below |
| Kyle Finnegan | Tigers | 0.2 strikeouts | 0.8 over 40 | 75% below |
| Kyle Hart | Padres | 0.4 strikeouts | 1.5 over 32 | 73% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
MLB player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.