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With no line posted, over 17 MLB games since July 2026, Parker Messick has gone over a balanced line of 5.5 strikeouts 9 times (53%), and over their last 10 they have done it 3 times (30%). They average 5.9 strikeouts across those 17 games. Their last 5 average 3.8, 35% below their 5.9 this season (17 games). They have gone under 5.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Cleveland Guardians games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikeouts | 17 | 5.9 strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Hits Allowed | 17 | 4.8 hits allowed | Over 4.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 13 of 17 (76%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Strikeouts | Over 6.5 | 4 of 17 (24%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Hits Allowed | Over 3.5 | 13 of 17 (76%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Hits Allowed | Over 4.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Hits Allowed | Over 5.5 | 7 of 17 (41%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
Every market measured for Parker Messick, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Strikeouts | Hits Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Tampa Bay Rays | Home | 3 | 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 3 | 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | Chicago White Sox | Away | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | Chicago White Sox | Home | 6 | 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | Kansas City Royals | Away | 2 | 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | Chicago White Sox | Home | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | Minnesota Twins | Away | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | Detroit Tigers | Home | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | Kansas City Royals | Home | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | Los Angeles Angels | Away | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | San Francisco Giants | Home | 10 | 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | Detroit Tigers | Away | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chicago White Sox | Away | 8 | 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Home | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 6 | 6 |
Counted from the same 17 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Strikeouts |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 2 |
| 25th percentile | 5 |
| Median | 6 |
| 75th percentile | 6 |
| Highest logged game | 12 |
9 of 17 games (53%) landed between 5 and 6; 9 (53%) finished at or above the 6 median, and the spread from 2 to 12 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Parker Messick actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4 | 4.3 |
| September 2026 | 5 | 6.4 |
| August 2026 | 6 | 6.5 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 4 | 6.8 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| Minnesota Twins | 2 | 5.5 | 6 |
| Kansas City Royals | 2 | 3.5 | 5 |
Most-faced in this log is Chicago White Sox, 4 games at 6.8, best of 8. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 6 median rather than a posted line, Parker Messick's longest run at or above it is 6 games and the run open at the newest of the 17 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hits allowed | 4.8 | 1.5 | steady | 17 |
| strikeouts | 5.9 | 2.4 | mixed | 17 |
Their hits allowed is the steadiest of the 2 markets measured here, averaging 4.8 with a spread of 1.5; their strikeouts swings most, 5.9 with a spread of 2.4. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Parker Messick has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 9 of 17 logged games (53%).
At home they average 7.0 over 8 games; away, 4.9 over 9.
Parker Messick strikeouts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Parker Messick has gone over 4.5 hits allowed in 10 of 17 logged games (59%).
At home they average 5.5 over 8 games; away, 4.2 over 9.
Parker Messick hits allowed: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop history for Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians. Nothing is priced right now, so what follows is the record in Strikeouts and Hits Allowed: how often they have finished above each line their own game log supports, what their average looks like at home and away, and how much they have moved lately against their own baseline. Every figure is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game they actually played, and rebuilt daily. None of it is a forecast, and none of it is compared with a price: when the books post this market again the live board appears at the top of this page.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official MLB box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Not while the MLB board is down. This page keeps the measured history in the meantime and the live board reappears at the top of it the morning after the books post this market: the address does not change, so a bookmark or a link keeps working.
How often they finished above each line their own distribution supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, with the game count printed beside every rate. A percentage without a denominator is not a measurement, so none appears here without one.
No. It is a record of games that have been played, and it is not compared with any price because no price is posted. Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets.
How MLB prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.