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With no line posted, over 50 NBA games since October 2025, Aaron Gordon has gone over a balanced line of 15.5 points 24 times (48%), and over their last 10 they have done it once (10%). They average 14.7 points across those 50 games. Their last 5 (10.4) are in line with their 11.0 this season (11 games), so there is no recent move to read into. They have gone under 15.5 in each of their last 4. These are measured box-score results from Denver Nuggets games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Line | All 50 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 points | 43 of 50 (86%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 9.5 points | 35 of 50 (70%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 15.5 points | 24 of 50 (48%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 17.5 points | 15 of 50 (30%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 22.5 points | 8 of 50 (16%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Aaron Gordon right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Aaron Gordon has averaged 10.4 points over their last 5, 29% below their 14.7 across all 50 logged games.
Aaron Gordon's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 8.2 around 14.7. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 10.4 points |
| Last 10 games | 10.1 points |
| All 50 logged games | 14.7 points |
| Best in the log | 50 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (25 games) | 13.6 points |
| Away (25 games) | 15.9 points |
Aaron Gordon's highest in this log is 50 points against the Golden State Warriors on 2025-10-23, and the lowest is 0 against the Houston Rockets on 2026-03-11. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 15.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 12 of 25 (48%) |
| On the road | 12 of 25 (48%) |
| Against the Minnesota Timberwolves | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Against the New Orleans Pelicans | 1 of 5 (20%) |
Aaron Gordon has cleared 15.5 points at much the same rate home and away, 48% against 48%.
Their deepest matchup sample is 5 games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, 2 of them over 15.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 11 |
| 2026-11-11 | Memphis Grizzlies | Away | 9 |
| 2026-11-09 | Houston Rockets | Away | 3 |
| 2026-11-07 | Indiana Pacers | Away | 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | Toronto Raptors | Home | 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | Portland Trail Blazers | Home | 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | Phoenix Suns | Away | 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | Golden State Warriors | Home | 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | New Orleans Pelicans | Home | 7 |
Every points prop the books have posted for Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets, with the NBA game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Aaron Gordon props and hit rates · Every NBA points prop
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