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Over 17 NFL games since October 2025, Dalton Kincaid has gone over the posted 3.5 receptions 7 times (41%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 3.4 receptions across those 17 games. Their last 5 (3.2) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. Against the New York Jets in this log they have 1 game, averaging 3.0. These are measured box-score results from Buffalo Bills games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the New York Jets. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Line | All 17 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 receptions | 16 of 17 (94%) | 10 of 10 (100%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 2.5 receptions | 11 of 17 (65%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 7 of 17 (41%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 5 of 17 (29%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 2 of 17 (12%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Dalton Kincaid right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Dalton Kincaid has averaged 3.2 receptions over their last 5, against 3.4 across all 17 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Dalton Kincaid's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 2.1 around 3.4. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3.2 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 3.9 receptions |
| All 17 logged games | 3.4 receptions |
| Best in the log | 7 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (7 games) | 3.9 receptions |
| Away (10 games) | 3.1 receptions |
Dalton Kincaid's highest in this log is 7 receptions against the Las Vegas Raiders on 2026-10-18, and the lowest is 0 against the Cleveland Browns on 2025-12-21. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 3.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 4 of 7 (57%) |
| On the road | 3 of 10 (30%) |
Dalton Kincaid has cleared 3.5 receptions 27 points more often at home, 57% in 7 home games against 30% in 10 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Dalton Kincaid has 1 logged game against the New York Jets, averaging 3.0 receptions with a high of 3. Most recent first, those games read 3. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | New England Patriots | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | Detroit Lions | Home | 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | Houston Texans | Away | 5 |
| 2026-01-17 | Denver Broncos | Away | 6 |
| 2026-01-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Away | 3 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Dalton Kincaid props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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