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With no line posted, over 87 NBA games since October 2025, Chet Holmgren has gone over a balanced line of 15.5 points 45 times (52%), and over their last 10 they have done it once (10%). They average 16.6 points across those 87 games. Their last 5 average 10.0, 40% below their 16.6 over their last 87 games. They have gone under 15.5 in each of their last 5. These are measured box-score results from Oklahoma City Thunder games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Line | All 87 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 points | 72 of 87 (83%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 12.5 points | 63 of 87 (72%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 15.5 points | 45 of 87 (52%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 19.5 points | 26 of 87 (30%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 23.5 points | 14 of 87 (16%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Chet Holmgren right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 10.0 points over their last 5, 40% below their 16.6 across all 87 logged games.
Chet Holmgren's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 6.1 around 16.6. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 10.0 points |
| Last 10 games | 11.1 points |
| All 87 logged games | 16.6 points |
| Best in the log | 31 |
| Worst in the log | 4 |
| Home (43 games) | 16.5 points |
| Away (44 games) | 16.6 points |
Chet Holmgren's highest in this log is 31 points against the Atlanta Hawks on 2025-10-25, and the lowest is 4 against the San Antonio Spurs on 2026-05-30. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 15.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 24 of 43 (56%) |
| On the road | 21 of 44 (48%) |
| On one day between games | 4 of 9 (44%) |
| On two or more days between games | 40 of 76 (53%) |
| Against the San Antonio Spurs | 2 of 12 (17%) |
| Against the Phoenix Suns | 6 of 8 (75%) |
| Against the Los Angeles Lakers | 4 of 8 (50%) |
Chet Holmgren has cleared 15.5 points at much the same rate home and away, 56% against 48%.
A day between games has not moved the number much: 44% on one day, 53% on two or more.
Their deepest matchup sample is 12 games against the San Antonio Spurs, 2 of them over 15.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | LA Clippers | Home | 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | Denver Nuggets | Home | 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 14 |
| 2026-05-30 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 10 |
| 2026-05-26 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 16 |
| 2026-05-24 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 10 |
| 2026-05-22 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 14 |
| 2026-05-20 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 13 |
| 2026-05-18 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 8 |
Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder in points, measured from official NBA box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Chet Holmgren props and hit rates · Every NBA points prop
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.