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With no line posted, over 84 NBA games since October 2025, Davion Mitchell has gone over a balanced line of 10.5 points 42 times (50%), and over their last 10 they have done it 9 times (90%). They average 10.7 points across those 84 games. Their last 5 average 19.0, 13% above their 16.8 this season (13 games). They have gone over 10.5 in each of their last 8. These are measured box-score results from Miami Heat games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Line | All 84 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 points | 71 of 84 (85%) | 10 of 10 (100%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 8.5 points | 55 of 84 (65%) | 10 of 10 (100%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 10.5 points | 42 of 84 (50%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 12.5 points | 28 of 84 (33%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 15.5 points | 15 of 84 (18%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Davion Mitchell right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Davion Mitchell has averaged 19.0 points over their last 5, 77% above their 10.7 across all 84 logged games.
Davion Mitchell's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 5.5 around 10.7. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 19.0 points |
| Last 10 games | 16.7 points |
| All 84 logged games | 10.7 points |
| Best in the log | 28 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (41 games) | 10.9 points |
| Away (43 games) | 10.5 points |
Davion Mitchell's highest in this log is 28 points against the Charlotte Hornets on 2026-04-14, and the lowest is 0 against the Indiana Pacers on 2025-12-27. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 10.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 22 of 41 (54%) |
| On the road | 20 of 43 (47%) |
| On one day between games | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| On two or more days between games | 33 of 69 (48%) |
| Against the Charlotte Hornets | 3 of 6 (50%) |
| Against the Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Against the Detroit Pistons | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Against the Atlanta Hawks | 1 of 5 (20%) |
Davion Mitchell has cleared 10.5 points at much the same rate home and away, 54% against 47%.
A day between games has not moved the number much: 54% on one day, 48% on two or more.
Their deepest matchup sample is 6 games against the Charlotte Hornets, 3 of them over 10.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Detroit Pistons | Home | 15 |
| 2026-11-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Home | 22 |
| 2026-11-10 | Utah Jazz | Away | 19 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sacramento Kings | Away | 17 |
| 2026-11-05 | Golden State Warriors | Away | 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | LA Clippers | Away | 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | Away | 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | Indiana Pacers | Home | 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | Atlanta Hawks | Away | 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | Dallas Mavericks | Home | 21 |
Every points prop the books have posted for Davion Mitchell of the Miami Heat, with the NBA game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Davion Mitchell props and hit rates · Every NBA points prop
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