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With no line posted, over 71 NBA games since October 2025, Marvin Bagley III has gone over a balanced line of 8.5 points 38 times (54%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 9.7 points across those 71 games. Their last 5 average 7.4, 25% above their 5.9 this season (11 games). They have gone under 8.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Denver Nuggets games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Friday, November 20, 10:10 PM ET, at home against the Houston Rockets. Last logged game November 14, 6 days before.
| Line | All 71 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 points | 61 of 71 (86%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 6.5 points | 48 of 71 (68%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 8.5 points | 38 of 71 (54%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 11.5 points | 23 of 71 (32%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 15.5 points | 9 of 71 (13%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Marvin Bagley III right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Marvin Bagley III has averaged 7.4 points over their last 5, 24% below their 9.7 across all 71 logged games.
Marvin Bagley III's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 5.5 around 9.7. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 7.4 points |
| Last 10 games | 6.3 points |
| All 71 logged games | 9.7 points |
| Best in the log | 26 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (29 games) | 8.8 points |
| Away (42 games) | 10.4 points |
Marvin Bagley III's highest in this log is 26 points against the Portland Trail Blazers on 2026-03-27, and the lowest is 0 against the Phoenix Suns on 2026-10-30. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 8.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 14 of 29 (48%) |
| On the road | 24 of 42 (57%) |
| On one day between games | 6 of 8 (75%) |
| On two or more days between games | 32 of 61 (52%) |
| Against the Phoenix Suns | 2 of 5 (40%) |
Marvin Bagley III has cleared 8.5 points at much the same rate home and away, 48% against 57%.
Short rest has suited them, 75% over 8 games on a single day between games against 52% over 61 with more.
Their deepest matchup sample is 5 games against the Phoenix Suns, 2 of them over 8.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Marvin Bagley III has 2 logged games against the Houston Rockets, averaging 7.5 points with a high of 9. Most recent first, those games read 6, 9. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 7 |
| 2026-11-11 | Memphis Grizzlies | Away | 4 |
| 2026-11-09 | Houston Rockets | Away | 6 |
| 2026-11-07 | Indiana Pacers | Away | 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | Toronto Raptors | Home | 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | Portland Trail Blazers | Home | 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | Phoenix Suns | Away | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | Golden State Warriors | Home | 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | New Orleans Pelicans | Home | 5 |
Marvin Bagley III of the Denver Nuggets in points, measured from official NBA box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.