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With no line posted, over 71 NBA games since October 2025, Marvin Bagley III has gone over a balanced line of 8.5 points 38 times (54%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 9.7 points across those 71 games. Their last 5 average 7.4, 25% above their 5.9 this season (11 games). They have gone under 8.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Denver Nuggets games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Friday, November 20, 10:10 PM ET, at home against the Houston Rockets. Last logged game November 14, 6 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 71 | 9.7 points | Over 8.5 | 38 of 71 (54%) |
| Rebounds | 71 | 5.7 rebounds | Over 5.5 | 34 of 71 (48%) |
| Assists | 71 | 1.3 assists | Over 1.5 | 24 of 71 (34%) |
| Steals | 71 | 0.4 steals | Over 0.5 | 23 of 71 (32%) |
| Blocks | 71 | 0.7 blocks | Over 0.5 | 34 of 71 (48%) |
| Turnovers | 71 | 0.9 turnovers | Over 0.5 | 41 of 71 (58%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | 71 | 0.3 three-pointers | Over 0.5 | 19 of 71 (27%) |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | 71 | 16.7 combined points, rebounds and assists | Over 14.5 | 38 of 71 (54%) |
| Points + Rebounds | 71 | 15.5 combined points and rebounds | Over 13.5 | 36 of 71 (51%) |
| Points + Assists | 71 | 11.0 combined points and assists | Over 10.5 | 33 of 71 (46%) |
| Rebounds + Assists | 71 | 7.0 combined rebounds and assists | Over 6.5 | 37 of 71 (52%) |
| Blocks + Steals | 71 | 1.1 combined blocks and steals | Over 0.5 | 43 of 71 (61%) |
| Double-Double | 71 | 6 of 71 (8%) | No line, yes or no | 8% |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Over 6.5 | 48 of 71 (68%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Points | Over 8.5 | 38 of 71 (54%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Points | Over 11.5 | 23 of 71 (32%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Rebounds | Over 3.5 | 50 of 71 (70%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Rebounds | Over 5.5 | 34 of 71 (48%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Rebounds | Over 7.5 | 18 of 71 (25%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Assists | Over 0.5 | 48 of 71 (68%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Assists | Over 1.5 | 24 of 71 (34%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Assists | Over 2.5 | 11 of 71 (15%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Steals | Over 0.5 | 23 of 71 (32%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Steals | Over 1.5 | 5 of 71 (7%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Blocks | Over 0.5 | 34 of 71 (48%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Blocks | Over 1.5 | 8 of 71 (11%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Blocks | Over 2.5 | 4 of 71 (6%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Turnovers | Over 0.5 | 41 of 71 (58%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Turnovers | Over 1.5 | 18 of 71 (25%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Turnovers | Over 2.5 | 5 of 71 (7%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 0.5 | 19 of 71 (27%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
Every market measured for Marvin Bagley III, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | Turnovers | 3-Pointers Made | Points + Rebounds + Assists | Points + Rebounds | Points + Assists | Rebounds + Assists | Blocks + Steals | Double-Double |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-11-11 | Memphis Grizzlies | Away | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-11-09 | Houston Rockets | Away | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-11-07 | Indiana Pacers | Away | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | Toronto Raptors | Home | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | Portland Trail Blazers | Home | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | Phoenix Suns | Away | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Market | Meetings | Average in them | High | Average, all games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Assists | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Blocks + Steals | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Points | 2 | 7.5 | 9 | 9.7 |
| Points + Assists | 2 | 8.0 | 10 | 11.0 |
| Points + Rebounds | 2 | 11.5 | 14 | 15.5 |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | 2 | 12.0 | 15 | 16.7 |
| Rebounds | 2 | 4.0 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Rebounds + Assists | 2 | 4.5 | 6 | 7.0 |
| Steals | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
Counted from the same 71 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Points |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 6 |
| Median | 9 |
| 75th percentile | 13 |
| Highest logged game | 26 |
42 of 71 games (59%) landed between 6 and 13; 38 (54%) finished at or above the 9 median, and the spread from 0 to 26 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Marvin Bagley III actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 6 | 7.2 |
| October 2026 | 5 | 4.4 |
| April 2026 | 4 | 13 |
| March 2026 | 11 | 9 |
| February 2026 | 9 | 13 |
| January 2026 | 9 | 9.8 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 8 | 10.8 |
| 2 days | 42 | 9.1 |
| 3 to 4 days | 13 | 10.5 |
| 5 or more days | 7 | 12 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 5 | 8.4 | 20 |
| LA Clippers | 4 | 14.8 | 21 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 4 | 7.3 | 9 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 | 6.8 | 15 |
| Indiana Pacers | 3 | 15 | 23 |
Most-faced in this log is Phoenix Suns, 5 games at 8.4, best of 20. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 9 median rather than a posted line, Marvin Bagley III's longest run at or above it is 5 games and the run open at the newest of the 71 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| points + rebounds + assists | 16.7 | 8.0 | mixed | 71 |
| rebounds + assists | 7.0 | 3.4 | mixed | 71 |
| points + rebounds | 15.5 | 7.6 | mixed | 71 |
| rebounds | 5.7 | 3.0 | mixed | 71 |
| points + assists | 11.0 | 6.1 | mixed | 71 |
| points | 9.7 | 5.5 | mixed | 71 |
| assists | 1.3 | 1.3 | volatile | 71 |
| blocks + steals | 1.1 | 1.3 | volatile | 71 |
Their points + rebounds + assists is the steadiest of the 8 markets measured here, averaging 16.7 with a spread of 8.0; their blocks + steals swings most, 1.1 with a spread of 1.3. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 8.5 points in 38 of 71 logged games (54%).
At home they average 8.8 over 29 games; away, 10.4 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III points: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 34 of 71 logged games (48%).
At home they average 5.2 over 29 games; away, 6.0 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III rebounds: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 1.5 assists in 24 of 71 logged games (34%).
At home they average 1.1 over 29 games; away, 1.4 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III assists: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 0.5 steals in 23 of 71 logged games (32%).
At home they average 0.3 over 29 games; away, 0.5 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III steals: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 0.5 blocks in 34 of 71 logged games (48%).
At home they average 0.6 over 29 games; away, 0.8 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III blocks: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 0.5 turnovers in 41 of 71 logged games (58%).
At home they average 1.1 over 29 games; away, 0.9 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III turnovers: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 0.5 three-pointers in 19 of 71 logged games (27%).
At home they average 0.2 over 29 games; away, 0.4 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 14.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in 38 of 71 logged games (54%).
At home they average 15.1 over 29 games; away, 17.8 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 13.5 combined points and rebounds in 36 of 71 logged games (51%).
At home they average 14.1 over 29 games; away, 16.4 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 10.5 combined points and assists in 33 of 71 logged games (46%).
At home they average 9.9 over 29 games; away, 11.8 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 6.5 combined rebounds and assists in 37 of 71 logged games (52%).
At home they average 6.3 over 29 games; away, 7.5 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has gone over 0.5 combined blocks and steals in 43 of 71 logged games (61%).
At home they average 0.9 over 29 games; away, 1.2 over 42.
Marvin Bagley III has a double-double in 6 of 71 logged games.
At home they have recorded one in 1 of 29 games; away, 5 of 42.
Prop history for Marvin Bagley III of the Denver Nuggets. What follows is the record in Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers, 3-Pointers Made, Points + Rebounds + Assists, Points + Rebounds, Points + Assists, Rebounds + Assists, Blocks + Steals and Double-Double: how often they have finished above each line their own game log supports, what their average looks like at home and away, and how much they have moved lately against their own baseline. Every figure is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game they actually played, and rebuilt daily. None of it is a forecast, and none of it is compared with a price. When the live board carries a line for this player, it appears at the top of this page.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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This page keeps the measured history. When the live board carries a line for Marvin Bagley III, it appears at the top of this page, and the address does not change, so a bookmark or a link keeps working.
How often they finished above each line their own distribution supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, with the game count printed beside every rate. A percentage without a denominator is not a measurement, so none appears here without one.
No. It is a record of games that have been played, and it is not compared with any price. Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets.
How NBA prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.