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With no line posted, over 75 NBA games since October 2025, Trey Murphy III has gone over a balanced line of 20.5 points 38 times (51%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 20.8 points across those 75 games. Their last 5 average 17.6, 15% below their 20.8 over their last 75 games. These are measured box-score results from New Orleans Pelicans games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 75 | 20.8 points | Over 20.5 | 38 of 75 (51%) |
Counted from the same 75 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Points |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 6 |
| 25th percentile | 16 |
| Median | 21 |
| 75th percentile | 25 |
| Highest logged game | 44 |
39 of 75 games (52%) landed between 16 and 25; 38 (51%) finished at or above the 21 median, and the spread from 6 to 44 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Trey Murphy III actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 3 | 18 |
| October 2026 | 6 | 14.3 |
| March 2026 | 12 | 19.9 |
| February 2026 | 5 | 27.4 |
| January 2026 | 14 | 24 |
| December 2025 | 14 | 21.5 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | 20.5 |
| 2 days | 42 | 21.4 |
| 3 to 4 days | 16 | 20.2 |
| 5 or more days | 4 | 19.8 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Clippers | 5 | 21.8 | 27 |
| Denver Nuggets | 5 | 18.6 | 31 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 5 | 16.6 | 32 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 4 | 28.5 | 41 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 4 | 22.5 | 33 |
| Phoenix Suns | 4 | 21.5 | 24 |
Most-faced in this log is LA Clippers, 5 games at 21.8, best of 27. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 21 median rather than a posted line, Trey Murphy III's longest run at or above it is 8 games and the run open at the newest of the 75 is 1. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
Trey Murphy III has gone over 20.5 points in 38 of 75 logged games (51%).
At home they average 20.8 over 39 games; away, 20.8 over 36.
Trey Murphy III points: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Trey Murphy III of the New Orleans Pelicans. The books are currently pricing Points lines for Trey Murphy III, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NBA price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced: currently Points. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NBA tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NBA prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.