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Over 13 logged NFL games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 2.5 receptions 7 times (54%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 3.0 receptions across those 13 games. Their last 5 average 2.4, 20% below their 3.0 across the full log. Against the Atlanta Falcons in this log they have 1 game, averaging 2.0. These are measured box-score results from New Orleans Saints games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 13 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptions | 10 of 13 (77%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 2.5 receptions | 7 of 13 (54%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 5 of 13 (38%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 3 of 13 (23%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 1 of 13 (8%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Alvin Kamara right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Alvin Kamara has averaged 2.4 receptions over their last 5, 20% below their 3.0 across all 13 logged games.
Alvin Kamara's receptions varies moderately, a standard deviation of 1.6 around 3.0. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2.4 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 3.0 receptions |
| All 13 logged games | 3.0 receptions |
| Best in the log | 6 |
| Worst in the log | 1 |
| Home (6 games) | 3.3 receptions |
| Away (7 games) | 2.7 receptions |
Alvin Kamara's highest in this log is 6 receptions against the San Francisco 49ers on 2025-09-14, and the lowest is 1 against the Las Vegas Raiders on 2026-09-27. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 2.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 3 of 6 (50%) |
| On the road | 4 of 7 (57%) |
Alvin Kamara has cleared 2.5 receptions at much the same rate home and away, 50% against 57%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Alvin Kamara has 1 logged game against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging 2.0 receptions with a high of 2. Most recent first, those games read 2. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Las Vegas Raiders | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Baltimore Ravens | Away | 5 |
| 2025-11-23 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | 2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Carolina Panthers | Away | 3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | 2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Chicago Bears | Away | 3 |
| 2025-10-12 | New England Patriots | Home | 5 |
| 2025-10-05 | New York Giants | Home | 4 |
| 2025-09-28 | Buffalo Bills | Away | 4 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Alvin Kamara props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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