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Over 19 NFL games since October 2025, Justin Jefferson has gone over the posted 6.5 receptions 3 times (16%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 4.5 receptions across those 19 games. Their last 5 average 4.0, 12% below their 4.5 over their last 19 games. They have gone under 6.5 in each of their last 6. Against the Green Bay Packers in this log they have 3 games, averaging 6.7. These are measured box-score results from Minnesota Vikings games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Green Bay Packers. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Line | All 19 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 15 of 19 (79%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 13 of 19 (68%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 9 of 19 (47%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 6 of 19 (32%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 3 of 19 (16%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Justin Jefferson right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Justin Jefferson has averaged 4.0 receptions over their last 5, 12% below their 4.5 across all 19 logged games.
Justin Jefferson's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.9 around 4.5. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.0 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4.9 receptions |
| All 19 logged games | 4.5 receptions |
| Best in the log | 8 |
| Worst in the log | 2 |
| Home (9 games) | 4.8 receptions |
| Away (10 games) | 4.3 receptions |
Justin Jefferson's highest in this log is 8 receptions against the Green Bay Packers on 2026-09-13, and the lowest is 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2026-09-27. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 4.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 4 of 9 (44%) |
| On the road | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Justin Jefferson has cleared 4.5 receptions at much the same rate home and away, 44% against 50%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Justin Jefferson has 3 logged games against the Green Bay Packers, averaging 6.7 receptions with a high of 8. Most recent first, those games read 8, 8, 4. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | Detroit Lions | Away | 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Bears | Away | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 8 |
| 2026-01-04 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 8 |
| 2025-12-25 | Detroit Lions | Home | 4 |
| 2025-12-21 | New York Giants | Away | 6 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Justin Jefferson props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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