This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 14 logged NFL games, Christian Watson has gone over 3.5 receptions 9 times (64%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 3.9 receptions across those 14 games. Their last 5 average 5.0, 27% above their 3.9 across the full log. They have gone over 3.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Green Bay Packers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 14 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 11 of 14 (79%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 9 of 14 (64%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 4 of 14 (29%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 2 of 14 (14%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 1 of 14 (7%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Christian Watson right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Christian Watson has averaged 5.0 receptions over their last 5, 27% above their 3.9 across all 14 logged games.
Christian Watson's receptions varies moderately, a standard deviation of 1.4 around 3.9. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5.0 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4.3 receptions |
| All 14 logged games | 3.9 receptions |
| Best in the log | 7 |
| Worst in the log | 2 |
| Home (6 games) | 3.8 receptions |
| Away (8 games) | 4.0 receptions |
Christian Watson's highest in this log is 7 receptions against the Atlanta Falcons on 2026-09-25, and the lowest is 2 against the Chicago Bears on 2025-12-21. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 3.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 4 of 6 (67%) |
| On the road | 5 of 8 (63%) |
Christian Watson has cleared 3.5 receptions at much the same rate home and away, 67% against 63%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Jets | Away | 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 6 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chicago Bears | Away | 3 |
| 2025-12-28 | Baltimore Ravens | Away | 5 |
| 2025-12-21 | Chicago Bears | Home | 2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Denver Broncos | Away | 3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Chicago Bears | Away | 4 |
| 2025-11-27 | Detroit Lions | Home | 4 |
| 2025-11-23 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 5 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Christian Watson props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.