This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 21 NFL games since October 2025, Derrick Henry has gone over the posted 19.5 carries 11 times (52%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 19.9 carries across those 21 games. Their last 5 average 17.2, 14% below their 19.9 over their last 21 games. They have gone under 19.5 in each of their last 4. These are measured box-score results from Baltimore Ravens games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Monday, November 16, 8:15 PM ET, at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. Last logged game November 5, 11 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Attempts | 21 | 19.9 carries | Over 19.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Receptions | 21 | 1.1 receptions | Over 0.5 | 15 of 21 (71%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Attempts | Over 17.5 | 14 of 21 (67%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Rush Attempts | Over 19.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Rush Attempts | Over 23.5 | 6 of 21 (29%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Receptions | Over 0.5 | 15 of 21 (71%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Receptions | Over 1.5 | 6 of 21 (29%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Receptions | Over 2.5 | 2 of 21 (10%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
Every market Derrick Henry is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Rush Attempts | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | 17 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | Buffalo Bills | Away | 11 | 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 17 | 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Cleveland Browns | Away | 17 | 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | 24 | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | Tennessee Titans | Home | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 26 | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | New Orleans Saints | Home | 16 | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 24 | 1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Away | 20 | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 36 | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | New England Patriots | Home | 18 | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Cincinnati Bengals | Away | 11 | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | 25 | 1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 10 | 1 |
| 2025-11-23 | New York Jets | Home | 21 | 2 |
Counted from the same 21 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Rush Attempts |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 10 |
| 25th percentile | 17 |
| Median | 20 |
| 75th percentile | 24 |
| Highest logged game | 36 |
14 of 21 games (67%) landed between 17 and 24; 11 (52%) finished at or above the 20 median, and the spread from 10 to 36 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Derrick Henry actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4 | 20.3 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 22 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 22.5 |
| November 2025 | 4 | 17.3 |
| October 2025 | 3 | 21.3 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 3 to 4 days | 3 | 15.3 |
| 5 or more days | 17 | 20.5 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 12.7 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 22.5 | 25 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 17.5 | 18 |
Most-faced in this log is Cincinnati Bengals, 3 games at 12.7, best of 17. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 20 median rather than a posted line, Derrick Henry's longest run at or above it is 3 games and the run open at the newest of the 21 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rush attempts | 19.9 | 5.7 | steady | 21 |
| receptions | 1.1 | 0.9 | volatile | 21 |
Their rush attempts is the steadiest of the 2 markets measured here, averaging 19.9 with a spread of 5.7; their receptions swings most, 1.1 with a spread of 0.9. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Derrick Henry has gone over 19.5 carries in 11 of 21 logged games (52%).
At home they average 19.2 over 10 games; away, 20.5 over 11.
Derrick Henry rush attempts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Derrick Henry has gone over 0.5 receptions in 15 of 21 logged games (71%).
At home they average 1.1 over 10 games; away, 1.1 over 11.
Derrick Henry receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens. The books are currently pricing Rush Attempts and Receptions lines for Derrick Henry, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
Whatever the books have priced: currently Rush Attempts and Receptions. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.