This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 20 NFL games since October 2025, DK Metcalf has gone over the posted 4.5 receptions 6 times (30%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 4.0 receptions across those 20 games. Their last 5 average 4.4, 11% above their 4.0 over their last 20 games. Against the Cincinnati Bengals in this log they have 3 games, averaging 3.7. These are measured box-score results from Pittsburgh Steelers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 8:20 PM ET, on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. Last logged game November 1, 14 days before.
| Line | All 20 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 16 of 20 (80%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 10 of 20 (50%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 6 of 20 (30%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 2 of 20 (10%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 2 of 20 (10%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for DK Metcalf right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
DK Metcalf has averaged 4.4 receptions over their last 5, 11% above their 4.0 across all 20 logged games.
DK Metcalf's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 2.1 around 4.0. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.4 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 3.9 receptions |
| All 20 logged games | 4.0 receptions |
| Best in the log | 11 |
| Worst in the log | 1 |
| Home (11 games) | 3.2 receptions |
| Away (9 games) | 4.9 receptions |
DK Metcalf's highest in this log is 11 receptions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2026-10-18, and the lowest is 1 against the Cleveland Browns on 2026-11-01. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 3.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 4 of 11 (36%) |
| On the road | 6 of 9 (67%) |
DK Metcalf has cleared 3.5 receptions 31 points more often on the road, 36% in 11 home games against 67% in 9 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
DK Metcalf has 3 logged games against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging 3.7 receptions with a high of 5. Most recent first, those games read 3, 5, 3. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Cleveland Browns | Home | 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | Cleveland Browns | Away | 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | New England Patriots | Away | 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Houston Texans | Home | 2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Detroit Lions | Away | 4 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for DK Metcalf of the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All DK Metcalf props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.