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Over 11 logged NFL games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 5.5 receptions 5 times (45%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 6.5 receptions across those 11 games. Their last 5 average 4.8, 27% below their 6.5 across the full log. They have gone under 5.5 in each of their last 5. Against the Washington Commanders in this log they have 1 game, averaging 7.0. These are measured box-score results from Dallas Cowboys games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 11 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptions | 10 of 11 (91%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 5 of 11 (45%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 7.5 receptions | 2 of 11 (18%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Jake Ferguson right now — the live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Jake Ferguson has averaged 4.8 receptions over their last 5, 27% below their 6.5 across all 11 logged games.
Jake Ferguson's receptions varies moderately, a standard deviation of 2.5 around 6.5. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.8 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 6.7 receptions |
| All 11 logged games | 6.5 receptions |
| Best in the log | 13 |
| Worst in the log | 4 |
| Home (5 games) | 7.4 receptions |
| Away (6 games) | 5.8 receptions |
Jake Ferguson has 1 logged game against the Washington Commanders, averaging 7.0 receptions with a high of 7. Most recent first, those games read 7. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Detroit Lions | Home | 5 |
| 2025-11-27 | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 5 |
| 2025-11-23 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 5 |
| 2025-11-18 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Arizona Cardinals | Away | 5 |
| 2025-10-19 | Washington Commanders | Home | 7 |
| 2025-10-05 | New York Jets | Away | 7 |
| 2025-09-29 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 7 |
| 2025-09-21 | Chicago Bears | Home | 13 |
| 2025-09-14 | New York Giants | Away | 9 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from. The history below — game by game, split home and away — is measured from official box scores and rebuilt daily. The line and the price load live rather than being printed here, because they change through the day. What the page will not do is tell you the bet wins: it shows you the sample and the price and stops there.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below, and shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin that sample is. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they actually played.
All Jake Ferguson props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.