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With no line posted, over 20 NFL games since October 2025, Jake Ferguson has gone over a balanced line of 2.5 receptions 12 times (60%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 3.0 receptions across those 20 games. Their last 5 average 2.0, 33% below their 3.0 over their last 20 games. They have gone under 2.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Dallas Cowboys games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:25 PM ET, at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 20 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 receptions | 18 of 20 (90%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 1.5 receptions | 16 of 20 (80%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 2.5 receptions | 12 of 20 (60%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 7 of 20 (35%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 5 of 20 (25%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Jake Ferguson right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Jake Ferguson has averaged 2.0 receptions over their last 5, 33% below their 3.0 across all 20 logged games.
Jake Ferguson's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.8 around 3.0. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2.0 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 2.1 receptions |
| All 20 logged games | 3.0 receptions |
| Best in the log | 7 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (9 games) | 4.1 receptions |
| Away (11 games) | 2.1 receptions |
Jake Ferguson's highest in this log is 7 receptions against the Washington Commanders on 2025-10-19, and the lowest is 0 against the Philadelphia Eagles on 2026-10-26. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 2.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 8 of 9 (89%) |
| On the road | 4 of 11 (36%) |
Jake Ferguson has cleared 2.5 receptions 53 points more often at home, 89% in 9 home games against 36% in 11 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | Houston Texans | Away | 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | Washington Commanders | Home | 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | New York Giants | Away | 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | New York Giants | Away | 1 |
| 2025-12-25 | Washington Commanders | Away | 1 |
Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys in receptions, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Jake Ferguson props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.