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Over 19 NFL games since October 2025, Justin Jefferson has gone over the posted 6.5 receptions 3 times (16%), and over their last 10 they have done it twice (20%). They average 4.5 receptions across those 19 games. Their last 5 average 4.0, 12% below their 4.5 over their last 19 games. They have gone under 6.5 in each of their last 6. Against the Green Bay Packers in this log they have 3 games, averaging 6.7. These are measured box-score results from Minnesota Vikings games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Green Bay Packers. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 19 | 4.5 receptions | Over 4.5 | 9 of 19 (47%) |
| Market | Meetings | Average in them | High | Average, all games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 3 | 6.7 | 8 | 4.5 |
Counted from the same 19 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Receptions |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 2 |
| 25th percentile | 3 |
| Median | 4 |
| 75th percentile | 6 |
| Highest logged game | 8 |
12 of 19 games (63%) landed between 3 and 6; 13 (68%) finished at or above the 4 median, and the spread from 2 to 8 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Justin Jefferson actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3 | 4.3 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 3.5 |
| November 2025 | 5 | 4.2 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 6.7 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Most-faced in this log is Green Bay Packers, 3 games at 6.7, best of 8. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 4 median rather than a posted line, Justin Jefferson's longest run at or above it is 6 games and the run open at the newest of the 19 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
Justin Jefferson has gone over 4.5 receptions in 9 of 19 logged games (47%).
At home they average 4.8 over 9 games; away, 4.3 over 10.
Justin Jefferson receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. The books are currently pricing Receptions lines for Justin Jefferson, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced: currently Receptions. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.