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Over 14 logged NFL games, Kyle Pitts has gone over 58.5 receiving yards 7 times (50%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 62.9 receiving yards across those 14 games. Their last 5 average 90.6, 44% above their 62.9 across the full log. Against the Carolina Panthers in this log they have 1 game, averaging 39.0. These are measured box-score results from Atlanta Falcons games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 14 | 5.8 receptions | Over 5.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| Receiving Yards | 14 | 62.9 receiving yards | Over 58.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
Every market Kyle Pitts is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | New Orleans Saints | Home | 6 | 58 |
| 2025-12-21 | Arizona Cardinals | Away | 7 | 57 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 11 | 166 |
| 2025-12-07 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 6 | 90 |
| 2025-11-30 | New York Jets | Home | 7 | 82 |
| 2025-11-23 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 2 | 25 |
| 2025-11-09 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 2 | 38 |
| 2025-11-02 | New England Patriots | Home | 4 | 38 |
Kyle Pitts has gone over 5.5 receptions in 8 of 14 logged games (57%).
At home they average 5.8 over 9 games; away, 5.8 over 5.
Kyle Pitts receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Kyle Pitts has gone over 58.5 receiving yards in 7 of 14 logged games (50%).
At home they average 58.1 over 9 games; away, 71.4 over 5.
Kyle Pitts receiving yards: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons. The books are currently pricing Receptions and Receiving Yards lines for Kyle Pitts, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, shrunk toward a league prior so a hot fortnight cannot pass for an edge, then compared with the price. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because a NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played — no projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins — this is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced — currently Receptions and Receiving Yards. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, shrunk toward a league prior so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.