This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 12 NFL games since October 2025, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over the posted 1.5 passing touchdowns 3 times (25%), and over their last 10 they have done it 3 times (30%). They average 1.3 passing touchdowns across those 12 games. Their last 5 average 1.6, 20% above their 1.3 over their last 12 games. These are measured box-score results from Atlanta Falcons games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts | 12 | 29.2 pass attempts | Over 31.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Passing TDs | 12 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Interceptions | 12 | 0.5 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Completions | 12 | 17.7 completions | Over 18.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts | Over 25.5 | 8 of 12 (67%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 31.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 32.5 | 4 of 12 (33%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 0.5 | 10 of 12 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 2.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Interceptions | Over 0.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Interceptions | Over 1.5 | 1 of 12 (8%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Interceptions | Over 2.5 | 1 of 12 (8%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Completions | Over 15.5 | 8 of 12 (67%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Completions | Over 18.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Completions | Over 20.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
Every market Michael Penix Jr. is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Pass Attempts | Passing TDs | Interceptions | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 31 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 24 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 34 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | Chicago Bears | Home | 33 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 32 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 20 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 25 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| 2025-11-16 | Carolina Panthers | Home | 16 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Counted from the same 12 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Passing TDs |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| 75th percentile | 1 |
| Highest logged game | 3 |
7 of 12 games (58%) landed between 1 and 1; 10 (83%) finished at or above the 1 median, and the spread from 0 to 3 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Michael Penix Jr. actually recorded.
Against their own 1 median rather than a posted line, Michael Penix Jr.'s longest run at or above it is 5 games and the run open at the newest of the 12 is 1. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pass attempts | 29.2 | 6.5 | steady | 12 |
| completions | 17.7 | 4.6 | steady | 12 |
| passing TDs | 1.3 | 1.0 | volatile | 12 |
Their pass attempts is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 29.2 with a spread of 6.5; their passing TDs swings most, 1.3 with a spread of 1.0. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 31.5 pass attempts in 6 of 12 logged games (50%).
At home they average 29.7 over 6 games; away, 28.7 over 6.
Michael Penix Jr. pass attempts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 3 of 12 logged games (25%).
At home they average 1.5 over 6 games; away, 1.2 over 6.
Michael Penix Jr. passing TDs: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 0.5 interceptions in 3 of 12 logged games (25%).
At home they average 0.2 over 6 games; away, 0.8 over 6.
Michael Penix Jr. interceptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 18.5 completions in 7 of 12 logged games (58%).
At home they average 19.3 over 6 games; away, 16.0 over 6.
Michael Penix Jr. completions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons. The books are currently pricing Pass Attempts, Passing TDs, Interceptions and Completions lines for Michael Penix Jr., and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
Whatever the books have priced: currently Pass Attempts, Passing TDs, Interceptions and Completions. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.