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With no line posted, over 21 NFL games since October 2025, Michael Wilson has gone over a balanced line of 4.5 receptions 11 times (52%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 5.8 receptions across those 21 games. Their last 5 (5.2) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from Arizona Cardinals games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:05 PM ET, at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 21 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 19 of 21 (90%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 16 of 21 (76%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 11 of 21 (52%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 6 of 21 (29%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 10.5 receptions | 3 of 21 (14%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Michael Wilson right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Michael Wilson has averaged 5.2 receptions over their last 5, against 5.8 across all 21 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Michael Wilson's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 3.3 around 5.8. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5.2 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 5.6 receptions |
| All 21 logged games | 5.8 receptions |
| Best in the log | 15 |
| Worst in the log | 2 |
| Home (8 games) | 6.4 receptions |
| Away (13 games) | 5.4 receptions |
Michael Wilson's highest in this log is 15 receptions against the San Francisco 49ers on 2025-11-16, and the lowest is 2 against the Seattle Seahawks on 2026-09-20. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 4.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 3 of 8 (38%) |
| On the road | 8 of 13 (62%) |
Michael Wilson has cleared 4.5 receptions 24 points more often on the road, 38% in 8 home games against 62% in 13 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Michael Wilson has 3 logged games against the Los Angeles Rams, averaging 6.7 receptions with a high of 11. Most recent first, those games read 4, 5, 11. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | Denver Broncos | Home | 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | Detroit Lions | Home | 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | New York Giants | Away | 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | San Francisco 49ers | Away | 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 5 |
| 2026-01-04 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 5 |
Michael Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals in receptions, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Michael Wilson props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.