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Over 13 logged NFL games, Terry McLaurin has gone over 3.5 receptions 5 times (38%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 3.7 receptions across those 13 games. Their last 5 (3.8) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from Washington Commanders games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 13 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 10 of 13 (77%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 5 of 13 (38%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 4 of 13 (31%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 5.5 receptions | 2 of 13 (15%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Terry McLaurin right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Terry McLaurin has averaged 3.8 receptions over their last 5, against 3.7 across all 13 logged games — no meaningful move either way.
Terry McLaurin's receptions varies moderately, a standard deviation of 1.5 around 3.7. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3.8 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 3.8 receptions |
| All 13 logged games | 3.7 receptions |
| Best in the log | 7 |
| Worst in the log | 2 |
| Home (5 games) | 3.4 receptions |
| Away (7 games) | 3.9 receptions |
Terry McLaurin's highest in this log is 7 receptions against the Denver Broncos on 2025-12-01, and the lowest is 2 against the Dallas Cowboys on 2026-09-20. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 3.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| On the road | 3 of 7 (43%) |
Terry McLaurin has cleared 3.5 receptions 23 points more often on the road, 20% in 5 home games against 43% in 7 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Philadelphia Eagles | — | 4 |
| 2025-12-25 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 5 |
| 2025-12-20 | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 3 |
| 2025-12-14 | New York Giants | Home | 3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 3 |
| 2025-12-01 | Denver Broncos | Away | 7 |
| 2025-10-28 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 3 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Terry McLaurin props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.