This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Across 192 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in anytime touchdown, this page measures 3473 games in total. The deepest sample here is DeMario Douglas, with 25 logged games. 192 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 192 measured; the figures above this table are over all 192.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Games with one | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | Patriots | 25 | 6 games | — | — |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 25 | 5 games | — | — |
| Hunter Henry | Patriots | 25 | 7 games | — | — |
| AJ Barner | Seahawks | 24 | 6 games | — | — |
| Blake Corum | Rams | 24 | 9 games | — | — |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 24 | 7 games | — | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 24 | 14 games | — | — |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 24 | 16 games | — | — |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 24 | 10 games | — | — |
| Cooper Kupp | Seahawks | 23 | 5 games | — | — |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 23 | 7 games | — | — |
| D'Andre Swift | Bears | 23 | 12 games | — | — |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 23 | 9 games | — | — |
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 23 | 5 games | — | — |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 22 | 11 games | — | — |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 22 | 5 games | — | — |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 22 | 17 games | — | — |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 22 | 3 games | — | — |
| Dawson Knox | Bills | 22 | 4 games | — | — |
| James Cook | Bills | 22 | 12 games | — | — |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | 22 | 7 games | — | — |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 22 | 5 games | — | — |
| Luther Burden III | Bears | 22 | 5 games | — | — |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots | 22 | 9 games | — | — |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 22 | 5 games | — | — |
| Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals | 22 | 7 games | — | — |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 21 | 8 games | — | — |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 4 games | — | — |
| Colby Parkinson | Rams | 21 | 8 games | — | — |
| Cole Kmet | Bears | 21 | 3 games | — | — |
| Derrick Henry | Ravens | 21 | 12 games | — | — |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 21 | 8 games | — | — |
| Emanuel Wilson | Seahawks | 21 | 5 games | — | — |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 21 | 12 games | — | — |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 13 games | — | — |
| Kayshon Boutte | Texans | 21 | 6 games | — | — |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 21 | 3 games | — | — |
| Kyle Williams | Patriots | 21 | 5 games | — | — |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 21 | 4 games | — | — |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 21 | 7 games | — | — |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 49ers | 0.2 (6) | 0.8 (5) | 0.6 away |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 1.0 (8) | 0.4 (13) | 0.6 at home |
| Cody White | Raiders | 0.0 (5) | 0.6 (5) | 0.6 away |
| D'Andre Swift | Bears | 0.3 (13) | 0.8 (10) | 0.5 away |
| Jordan Mason | Vikings | 0.5 (8) | 0.0 (7) | 0.5 at home |
| Jayden Higgins | Texans | 0.6 (7) | 0.1 (7) | 0.5 at home |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 0.7 (9) | 0.2 (11) | 0.5 at home |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 0.2 (10) | 0.7 (9) | 0.5 away |
| Sam LaPorta | Lions | 0.2 (6) | 0.7 (6) | 0.5 away |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 0.2 (5) | 0.7 (6) | 0.5 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 25 | 200% above |
| Darnell Washington | Steelers | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 185% above |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Texans | 0.4 touchdowns | 0.1 over 21 | 180% above |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 14 | 180% above |
| J.K. Dobbins | Broncos | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 14 | 180% above |
| Blake Corum | Rams | 1.0 touchdowns | 0.4 over 24 | 167% above |
| Luther Burden III | Bears | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 164% above |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 0.6 touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 164% above |
| Isaiah Likely | Giants | 0.8 touchdowns | 0.3 over 19 | 153% above |
| Tommy Tremble | Panthers | 0.4 touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 153% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 23 | 100% below |
| Dawson Knox | Bills | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 100% below |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.1 over 22 | 100% below |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 100% below |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Oronde Gadsden | Chargers | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Cole Kmet | Bears | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.1 over 21 | 100% below |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 0.0 touchdowns | 0.3 over 20 | 100% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.