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Over 18 NFL games since October 2025, Aaron Jones has gone over the posted 8.5 carries 13 times (72%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 13.0 carries across those 18 games. Their last 5 (12.6) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. They have gone under 8.5 in each of their last 3. Against the Green Bay Packers in this log they have 2 games, averaging 10.5. These are measured box-score results from Minnesota Vikings games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Green Bay Packers. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Line | All 18 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 carries | 15 of 18 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 8.5 carries | 13 of 18 (72%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 9.5 carries | 10 of 18 (56%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 17.5 carries | 5 of 18 (28%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 20.5 carries | 3 of 18 (17%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Aaron Jones right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Aaron Jones has averaged 12.6 carries over their last 5, against 13.0 across all 18 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Aaron Jones's rush attempts vary moderately, a standard deviation of 6.3 around 13.0. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 12.6 carries |
| Last 10 games | 15.4 carries |
| All 18 logged games | 13.0 carries |
| Best in the log | 25 |
| Worst in the log | 5 |
| Home (8 games) | 12.8 carries |
| Away (10 games) | 13.2 carries |
Aaron Jones's highest in this log is 25 carries against the New Orleans Saints on 2026-10-11, and the lowest is 5 against the Buffalo Bills on 2026-11-09. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 9.5 carries |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 8 (63%) |
| On the road | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Aaron Jones has cleared 9.5 carries 13 points more often at home, 63% in 8 home games against 50% in 10 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Aaron Jones has 2 logged games against the Green Bay Packers, averaging 10.5 carries with a high of 12. Most recent first, those games read 12, 9. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Rush Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | Detroit Lions | Away | 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | Miami Dolphins | Home | 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Bears | Away | 23 |
| 2026-09-13 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 12 |
| 2025-12-25 | Detroit Lions | Home | 18 |
| 2025-12-21 | New York Giants | Away | 21 |
Every rush attempts prop the books have posted for Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
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The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
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All Aaron Jones props and hit rates · Every NFL rush attempts prop
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