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Over 18 NFL games since October 2025, Aaron Jones has gone over the posted 8.5 carries 13 times (72%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 13.0 carries across those 18 games. Their last 5 (12.6) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. They have gone under 8.5 in each of their last 3. Against the Green Bay Packers in this log they have 2 games, averaging 10.5. These are measured box-score results from Minnesota Vikings games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Green Bay Packers. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 18 | 2.3 receptions | Over 2.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Rush Attempts | 18 | 13.0 carries | Over 9.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Receiving Yards | 18 | 13.9 receiving yards | Over 11.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | Over 1.5 | 13 of 18 (72%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Receptions | Over 2.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Receptions | Over 3.5 | 3 of 18 (17%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Rush Attempts | Over 8.5 | 13 of 18 (72%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Rush Attempts | Over 9.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Rush Attempts | Over 17.5 | 5 of 18 (28%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 4.5 | 13 of 18 (72%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 11.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 20.5 | 5 of 18 (28%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
Every market Aaron Jones is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions | Rush Attempts | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | Detroit Lions | Away | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 3 | 25 | 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | Miami Dolphins | Home | 4 | 20 | 34 |
| 2026-09-27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 5 | 17 | 34 |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Bears | Away | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2025-12-25 | Detroit Lions | Home | 3 | 18 | 10 |
| 2025-12-21 | New York Giants | Away | 2 | 21 | 8 |
| 2025-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2025-12-07 | Washington Commanders | Home | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 2025-11-23 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 2025-11-16 | Chicago Bears | Home | 3 | 16 | 11 |
| 2025-11-09 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| Market | Meetings | Average in them | High | Average, all games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 2 | 8.0 | 16 | 13.9 |
| Receptions | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Rush Attempts | 2 | 10.5 | 12 | 13.0 |
Counted from the same 18 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Rush Attempts |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 5 |
| 25th percentile | 8 |
| Median | 12 |
| 75th percentile | 18 |
| Highest logged game | 25 |
10 of 18 games (56%) landed between 8 and 18; 10 (56%) finished at or above the 12 median, and the spread from 5 to 25 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Aaron Jones actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 3 | 17.7 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 17.3 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 16.3 |
| November 2025 | 5 | 9.8 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 10.7 | 18 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 19.5 | 23 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 10.5 | 12 |
Most-faced in this log is Detroit Lions, 3 games at 10.7, best of 18. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 12 median rather than a posted line, Aaron Jones's longest run at or above it is 9 games and the run open at the newest of the 18 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rush attempts | 13.0 | 6.3 | mixed | 18 |
| receptions | 2.3 | 1.4 | mixed | 18 |
| receiving yards | 13.9 | 11.3 | volatile | 18 |
Their rush attempts is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 13.0 with a spread of 6.3; their receiving yards swings most, 13.9 with a spread of 11.3. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Aaron Jones has gone over 2.5 receptions in 9 of 18 logged games (50%).
At home they average 1.9 over 8 games; away, 2.6 over 10.
Aaron Jones receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Aaron Jones has gone over 9.5 carries in 10 of 18 logged games (56%).
At home they average 12.8 over 8 games; away, 13.2 over 10.
Aaron Jones rush attempts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Aaron Jones has gone over 11.5 receiving yards in 9 of 18 logged games (50%).
At home they average 10.3 over 8 games; away, 16.8 over 10.
Aaron Jones receiving yards: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings. The books are currently pricing Receptions, Rush Attempts and Receiving Yards lines for Aaron Jones, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced: currently Receptions, Rush Attempts and Receiving Yards. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.