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With no line posted, over 21 NFL games since October 2025, Caleb Williams has gone over a balanced line of 1.5 passing touchdowns 12 times (57%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 1.5 passing touchdowns across those 21 games. Their last 5 average 1.2, 19% below their 1.5 over their last 21 games. These are measured box-score results from Chicago Bears games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 22, 1:00 PM ET, at home against the New Orleans Saints. Last logged game November 8, 14 days before.
| Line | All 21 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passing touchdowns | 17 of 21 (81%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | 12 of 21 (57%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 2.5 passing touchdowns | 2 of 21 (10%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Caleb Williams right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Caleb Williams has averaged 1.2 passing touchdowns over their last 5, 19% below their 1.5 across all 21 logged games.
Caleb Williams's passing TDs vary moderately, a standard deviation of 0.9 around 1.5. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1.2 passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1.6 passing touchdowns |
| All 21 logged games | 1.5 passing touchdowns |
| Best in the log | 3 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (11 games) | 1.6 passing touchdowns |
| Away (10 games) | 1.3 passing touchdowns |
Caleb Williams's highest in this log is 3 passing touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2025-11-23, and the lowest is 0 against the Minnesota Vikings on 2026-09-20. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
|---|---|
| At home | 8 of 11 (73%) |
| On the road | 4 of 10 (40%) |
Caleb Williams has cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns 33 points more often at home, 73% in 11 home games against 40% in 10 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Caleb Williams has 1 logged game against the New Orleans Saints, averaging 0.0 passing touchdowns with a high of 0. Most recent first, those games read 0. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | New England Patriots | Home | 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Minnesota Vikings | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Carolina Panthers | Away | 2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Los Angeles Rams | Home | 2 |
| 2026-01-11 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Detroit Lions | Home | 2 |
| 2025-12-28 | San Francisco 49ers | Away | 2 |
Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears in passing TDs, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Caleb Williams props and hit rates · Every NFL passing TDs prop
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.