This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 12 NFL games since October 2025, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over the posted 1.5 passing touchdowns 3 times (25%), and over their last 10 they have done it 3 times (30%). They average 1.3 passing touchdowns across those 12 games. Their last 5 average 1.6, 20% above their 1.3 over their last 12 games. These are measured box-score results from Atlanta Falcons games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 12 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passing touchdowns | 10 of 12 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | 3 of 12 (25%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 2.5 passing touchdowns | 3 of 12 (25%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Michael Penix Jr. right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 1.6 passing touchdowns over their last 5, 20% above their 1.3 across all 12 logged games.
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing TDs swing widely: a standard deviation of 1.0 on a 1.3 average. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1.6 passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1.4 passing touchdowns |
| All 12 logged games | 1.3 passing touchdowns |
| Best in the log | 3 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (6 games) | 1.5 passing touchdowns |
| Away (6 games) | 1.2 passing touchdowns |
Michael Penix Jr.'s highest in this log is 3 passing touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers on 2026-10-25, and the lowest is 0 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2026-11-01. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
|---|---|
| At home | 2 of 6 (33%) |
| On the road | 1 of 6 (17%) |
Michael Penix Jr. has cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns 16 points more often at home, 33% in 6 home games against 17% in 6 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | Chicago Bears | Home | 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Carolina Panthers | Home | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | New England Patriots | Away | 3 |
Every passing TDs prop the books have posted for Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Michael Penix Jr. props and hit rates · Every NFL passing TDs prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.