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Over 22 NFL games since October 2025, Christian McCaffrey has gone over the posted 4.5 receptions 13 times (59%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 5.0 receptions across those 22 games. Their last 5 (4.6) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from San Francisco 49ers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:25 PM ET, on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 22 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptions | 20 of 22 (91%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 17 of 22 (77%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 13 of 22 (59%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 6.5 receptions | 5 of 22 (23%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 7.5 receptions | 2 of 22 (9%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Christian McCaffrey right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 4.6 receptions over their last 5, against 5.0 across all 22 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Christian McCaffrey's receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.9 around 5.0. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.6 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4.7 receptions |
| All 22 logged games | 5.0 receptions |
| Best in the log | 9 |
| Worst in the log | 1 |
| Home (11 games) | 5.0 receptions |
| Away (11 games) | 5.0 receptions |
Christian McCaffrey's highest in this log is 9 receptions against the Washington Commanders on 2026-10-19, and the lowest is 1 against the Tennessee Titans on 2025-12-14. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 4.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| On the road | 8 of 11 (73%) |
Christian McCaffrey has cleared 4.5 receptions 28 points more often on the road, 45% in 11 home games against 73% in 11 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Las Vegas Raiders | Home | 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | Washington Commanders | Home | 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | Denver Broncos | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Miami Dolphins | Home | 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 5 |
| 2026-01-17 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 5 |
| 2026-01-11 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 6 |
Every receptions prop the books have posted for Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Christian McCaffrey props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.