This page is loading — it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Across 29 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in rushing yards, this page measures 430 games in total. The median player in that field averages 71.6 rushing yards. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 62.5 for the median of the 29 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Kyren Williams, with 21 logged games. Of the 29 players whose spread can be measured, 3 cluster tightly around their average, 26 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 29 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 21 | 70.3 rushing yards | Over 66.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| James Cook | Bills | 20 | 98.0 rushing yards | Over 107.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 20 | 74.8 rushing yards | Over 66.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 18 | 72.5 rushing yards | Over 57.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 18 | 93.5 rushing yards | Over 76.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 17 | 90.4 rushing yards | Over 76.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| D'Andre Swift | Bears | 17 | 74.8 rushing yards | Over 63.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| Derrick Henry | Ravens | 17 | 99.8 rushing yards | Over 94.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | 17 | 60.8 rushing yards | Over 48.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Saquon Barkley | Eagles | 17 | 76.4 rushing yards | Over 60.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Travis Etienne | Jaguars | 17 | 66.5 rushing yards | Over 58.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Breece Hall | Jets | 16 | 71.6 rushing yards | Over 58.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 16 | 62.9 rushing yards | Over 56.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions | 16 | 86.6 rushing yards | Over 67.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Javonte Williams | Cowboys | 16 | 75.5 rushing yards | Over 76.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Tony Pollard | Titans | 16 | 66.5 rushing yards | Over 56.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 15 | 67.6 rushing yards | Over 60.5 | 7 of 15 (47%) |
| De'Von Achane | Dolphins | 15 | 82.6 rushing yards | Over 67.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Josh Jacobs | Packers | 14 | 67.2 rushing yards | Over 73.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Quinshon Judkins | Browns | 13 | 63.0 rushing yards | Over 59.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Woody Marks | Texans | 13 | 56.5 rushing yards | Over 62.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 11 | 73.5 rushing yards | Over 62.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| J.K. Dobbins | Broncos | 10 | 77.2 rushing yards | Over 77.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Commanders | 10 | 64.8 rushing yards | Over 61.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Jordan Mason | Vikings | 10 | 62.0 rushing yards | Over 52.5 | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Rico Dowdle | Panthers | 10 | 89.2 rushing yards | Over 58.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals | 10 | 48.1 rushing yards | Over 44.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants | 10 | 62.6 rushing yards | Over 62.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | 10 | 52.5 rushing yards | Over 47.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | Broncos | 10 | 77.2 rushing yards | 19.0 | 25% |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 21 | 70.3 rushing yards | 18.8 | 27% |
| Josh Jacobs | Packers | 14 | 67.2 rushing yards | 21.0 | 31% |
| Javonte Williams | Cowboys | 16 | 75.5 rushing yards | 27.7 | 37% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants | 10 | 62.6 rushing yards | 22.9 | 37% |
| Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals | 10 | 48.1 rushing yards | 19.2 | 40% |
| Jordan Mason | Vikings | 10 | 62.0 rushing yards | 24.5 | 40% |
| D'Andre Swift | Bears | 17 | 74.8 rushing yards | 30.6 | 41% |
| James Cook | Bills | 20 | 98.0 rushing yards | 42.2 | 43% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 18 | 72.5 rushing yards | 31.0 | 43% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | Panthers | 10 | 89.2 rushing yards | 58.7 | 66% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions | 16 | 86.6 rushing yards | 50.0 | 58% |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 18 | 93.5 rushing yards | 50.2 | 54% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 11 | 73.5 rushing yards | 38.7 | 53% |
| Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | 10 | 52.5 rushing yards | 27.9 | 53% |
| Tony Pollard | Titans | 16 | 66.5 rushing yards | 34.7 | 52% |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 17 | 90.4 rushing yards | 46.3 | 51% |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 20 | 74.8 rushing yards | 37.2 | 50% |
| De'Von Achane | Dolphins | 15 | 82.6 rushing yards | 41.3 | 50% |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | 17 | 60.8 rushing yards | 29.9 | 49% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | Panthers | 111.0 (6) | 56.5 (4) | 54.5 at home |
| Derrick Henry | Ravens | 80.0 (9) | 122.1 (8) | 42.1 away |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 89.7 (7) | 48.3 (8) | 41.4 at home |
| Jordan Mason | Vikings | 75.6 (5) | 48.4 (5) | 27.2 at home |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 52.9 (10) | 79.5 (6) | 26.6 away |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 86.6 (5) | 67.1 (13) | 19.5 at home |
| Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | 43.2 (5) | 61.8 (5) | 18.6 away |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants | 70.8 (5) | 54.4 (5) | 16.4 at home |
| Breece Hall | Jets | 64.1 (8) | 79.0 (8) | 14.9 away |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 99.2 (10) | 86.4 (8) | 12.8 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 116.6 rushing yards | 74.8 over 20 | 56% above |
| Tony Pollard | Titans | 100.0 rushing yards | 66.5 over 16 | 50% above |
| Derrick Henry | Ravens | 142.8 rushing yards | 99.8 over 17 | 43% above |
| Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | 71.2 rushing yards | 52.5 over 10 | 36% above |
| Saquon Barkley | Eagles | 93.4 rushing yards | 76.4 over 17 | 22% above |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 81.4 rushing yards | 67.6 over 15 | 20% above |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | 72.4 rushing yards | 60.8 over 17 | 19% above |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 81.6 rushing yards | 72.5 over 18 | 13% above |
| Woody Marks | Texans | 63.2 rushing yards | 56.5 over 13 | 12% above |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 69.6 rushing yards | 62.9 over 16 | 11% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | Panthers | 52.8 rushing yards | 89.2 over 10 | 41% below |
| Quinshon Judkins | Browns | 43.6 rushing yards | 63.0 over 13 | 31% below |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 65.4 rushing yards | 93.5 over 18 | 30% below |
| Travis Etienne | Jaguars | 51.4 rushing yards | 66.5 over 17 | 23% below |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 56.8 rushing yards | 70.3 over 21 | 19% below |
| Javonte Williams | Cowboys | 62.4 rushing yards | 75.5 over 16 | 17% below |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions | 73.4 rushing yards | 86.6 over 16 | 15% below |
| Jordan Mason | Vikings | 54.0 rushing yards | 62.0 over 10 | 13% below |
| James Cook | Bills | 85.8 rushing yards | 98.0 over 20 | 12% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.