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Over 24 NFL games since October 2025, Matthew Stafford has gone over the posted 210.5 passing yards 18 times (75%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 271.4 passing yards across those 24 games. Their last 5 average 237.0, 13% below their 271.4 over their last 24 games. Against the Arizona Cardinals in this log they have 3 games, averaging 254.0. These are measured box-score results from Los Angeles Rams games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:05 PM ET, on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | 24 | 23.4 completions | Over 23.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Interceptions | 24 | 0.7 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 24 (46%) |
| Passing TDs | 24 | 2.4 passing touchdowns | Over 2.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Pass Attempts | 24 | 36.6 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 13 of 24 (54%) |
| Passing Yards | 24 | 271.4 passing yards | Over 269.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | Over 21.5 | 17 of 24 (71%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Completions | Over 23.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Completions | Over 24.5 | 8 of 24 (33%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Interceptions | Over 0.5 | 11 of 24 (46%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Interceptions | Over 1.5 | 4 of 24 (17%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | 18 of 24 (75%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 2.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 3.5 | 5 of 24 (21%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 31.5 | 16 of 24 (67%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 33.5 | 13 of 24 (54%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 40.5 | 7 of 24 (29%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Passing Yards | Over 222.5 | 17 of 24 (71%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Passing Yards | Over 269.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Passing Yards | Over 304.5 | 7 of 24 (29%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Every market Matthew Stafford is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Completions | Interceptions | Passing TDs | Pass Attempts | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Washington Commanders | Away | 26 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 228 |
| 2026-11-01 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 17 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 157 |
| 2026-10-25 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 23 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 195 |
| 2026-10-18 | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 25 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 222 |
| 2026-10-12 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 40 | 0 | 3 | 54 | 383 |
| 2026-10-04 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 32 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 317 |
| 2026-09-27 | Denver Broncos | Away | 30 | 2 | 2 | 55 | 390 |
| 2026-09-21 | New York Giants | Home | 22 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 327 |
| Market | Meetings | Average in them | High | Average, all games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | 3 | 24.0 | 25 | 23.4 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Pass Attempts | 3 | 34.7 | 40 | 36.6 |
| Passing TDs | 3 | 3.0 | 4 | 2.4 |
| Passing Yards | 3 | 254.0 | 281 | 271.4 |
Counted from the same 24 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Passing Yards |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 130 |
| 25th percentile | 195 |
| Median | 269 |
| 75th percentile | 317 |
| Highest logged game | 457 |
13 of 24 games (54%) landed between 195 and 317; 13 (54%) finished at or above the 269 median, and the spread from 130 to 457 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Matthew Stafford actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4 | 279.3 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 290.7 |
| January 2026 | 4 | 298.8 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 343.8 |
| November 2025 | 5 | 241.4 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 320.3 | 457 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 254 | 281 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 273.5 | 304 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 217.5 | 280 |
Most-faced in this log is Seattle Seahawks, 3 games at 320.3, best of 457. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 269 median rather than a posted line, Matthew Stafford's longest run at or above it is 4 games and the run open at the newest of the 24 is 0. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| completions | 23.4 | 5.5 | steady | 24 |
| pass attempts | 36.6 | 8.7 | steady | 24 |
| passing yards | 271.4 | 82.0 | steady | 24 |
| passing TDs | 2.4 | 1.3 | mixed | 24 |
Their completions is the steadiest of the 4 markets measured here, averaging 23.4 with a spread of 5.5; their passing TDs swings most, 2.4 with a spread of 1.3. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Matthew Stafford has gone over 23.5 completions in 12 of 24 logged games (50%).
At home they average 23.2 over 10 games; away, 23.6 over 14.
Matthew Stafford completions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Matthew Stafford has gone over 0.5 interceptions in 11 of 24 logged games (46%).
At home they average 0.4 over 10 games; away, 0.9 over 14.
Matthew Stafford interceptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Matthew Stafford has gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns in 12 of 24 logged games (50%).
At home they average 2.5 over 10 games; away, 2.3 over 14.
Matthew Stafford passing TDs: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Matthew Stafford has gone over 33.5 pass attempts in 13 of 24 logged games (54%).
At home they average 34.1 over 10 games; away, 38.4 over 14.
Matthew Stafford pass attempts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Matthew Stafford has gone over 269.5 passing yards in 12 of 24 logged games (50%).
At home they average 255.5 over 10 games; away, 282.8 over 14.
Matthew Stafford passing yards: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams. The books are currently pricing Completions, Interceptions, Passing TDs, Pass Attempts and Passing Yards lines for Matthew Stafford, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced: currently Completions, Interceptions, Passing TDs, Pass Attempts and Passing Yards. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.