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Across 279 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in targets, this page measures 4640 games in total. The median player in that field averages 3.3 targets. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 2.5 for the median of the 279 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is DeMario Douglas, with 25 logged games. Of the 265 players whose spread can be measured, 17 cluster tightly around their average, 198 vary moderately and 50 swing widely. 279 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 279 measured; the figures above this table are over all 279.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | Patriots | 25 | 3.5 targets | Over 2.5 | 15 of 25 (60%) |
| Hunter Henry | Patriots | 25 | 4.4 targets | Over 4.5 | 13 of 25 (52%) |
| AJ Barner | Seahawks | 24 | 4.0 targets | Over 3.5 | 14 of 24 (58%) |
| Blake Corum | Rams | 24 | 1.2 targets | Over 1.5 | 9 of 24 (38%) |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 24 | 6.6 targets | Over 5.5 | 11 of 24 (46%) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 24 | 10.2 targets | Over 10.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 24 | 3.5 targets | Over 2.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 24 | 6.1 targets | Over 5.5 | 14 of 24 (58%) |
| Cooper Kupp | Seahawks | 23 | 4.3 targets | Over 3.5 | 11 of 23 (48%) |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 23 | 6.4 targets | Over 5.5 | 13 of 23 (57%) |
| D'Andre Swift | Bears | 23 | 2.7 targets | Over 2.5 | 10 of 23 (43%) |
| Evan Engram | Broncos | 23 | 4.0 targets | Over 3.5 | 13 of 23 (57%) |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 23 | 3.3 targets | Over 3.5 | 10 of 23 (43%) |
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 23 | 4.2 targets | Over 3.5 | 13 of 23 (57%) |
| Rashid Shaheed | Seahawks | 23 | 4.4 targets | Over 3.5 | 11 of 23 (48%) |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 22 | 5.5 targets | Over 4.5 | 12 of 22 (55%) |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 22 | 6.2 targets | Over 6.5 | 10 of 22 (45%) |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 22 | 6.0 targets | Over 4.5 | 11 of 22 (50%) |
| Dawson Knox | Bills | 22 | 2.9 targets | Over 2.5 | 11 of 22 (50%) |
| James Cook | Bills | 22 | 2.3 targets | Over 2.5 | 12 of 22 (55%) |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | 22 | 3.2 targets | Over 3.5 | 10 of 22 (45%) |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 22 | 6.0 targets | Over 5.5 | 10 of 22 (45%) |
| Luther Burden III | Bears | 22 | 6.0 targets | Over 5.5 | 13 of 22 (59%) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots | 22 | 3.1 targets | Over 2.5 | 14 of 22 (64%) |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 22 | 1.8 targets | Over 1.5 | 10 of 22 (45%) |
| Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals | 22 | 1.7 targets | Over 1.5 | 14 of 22 (64%) |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 21 | 5.4 targets | Over 5.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Colby Parkinson | Rams | 21 | 4.2 targets | Over 4.5 | 9 of 21 (43%) |
| Cole Kmet | Bears | 21 | 2.4 targets | Over 2.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Darnell Mooney | Giants | 21 | 4.1 targets | Over 3.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Derrick Henry | Ravens | 21 | 1.4 targets | Over 1.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 21 | 5.3 targets | Over 5.5 | 9 of 21 (43%) |
| Emanuel Wilson | Seahawks | 21 | 1.1 targets | Over 0.5 | 14 of 21 (67%) |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 21 | 3.5 targets | Over 3.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Kayshon Boutte | Texans | 21 | 3.6 targets | Over 3.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 21 | 6.9 targets | Over 6.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 21 | 6.1 targets | Over 5.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Kyle Williams | Patriots | 21 | 1.9 targets | Over 1.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 21 | 4.4 targets | Over 4.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 21 | 9.3 targets | Over 7.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 21 | 10.5 targets | 1.9 | 18% |
| Devaughn Vele | Saints | 14 | 6.1 targets | 1.7 | 27% |
| Blake Whiteheart | Browns | 10 | 1.1 targets | 0.3 | 27% |
| Tyler Warren | Colts | 19 | 7.1 targets | 1.9 | 27% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 24 | 10.2 targets | 3.0 | 30% |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 20 | 7.3 targets | 2.2 | 30% |
| Davante Adams | Rams | 18 | 7.9 targets | 2.4 | 30% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 20 | 10.8 targets | 3.4 | 31% |
| Xavier Worthy | Chiefs | 19 | 5.4 targets | 1.7 | 31% |
| Rashee Rice | Chiefs | 13 | 8.5 targets | 2.6 | 31% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | Saints | 12 | 1.3 targets | 1.7 | 127% |
| George Holani | Seahawks | 13 | 1.5 targets | 1.6 | 107% |
| Emanuel Wilson | Seahawks | 21 | 1.1 targets | 1.2 | 105% |
| Skyy Moore | Packers | 12 | 1.7 targets | 1.7 | 105% |
| Omarion Hampton | Chargers | 13 | 2.0 targets | 2.1 | 104% |
| Blake Corum | Rams | 24 | 1.2 targets | 1.2 | 101% |
| Keaton Mitchell | Chargers | 19 | 1.7 targets | 1.7 | 99% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 22 | 1.8 targets | 1.7 | 96% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | Browns | 14 | 1.1 targets | 1.0 | 96% |
| Isaiah Davis | Jets | 15 | 1.7 targets | 1.5 | 92% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Steelers | 4.1 (7) | 8.3 (6) | 4.2 away |
| Michael Pittman | Steelers | 4.3 (8) | 7.7 (7) | 3.4 away |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 11.3 (10) | 8.0 (9) | 3.3 at home |
| Xavier Legette | Panthers | 2.3 (8) | 5.4 (7) | 3.1 away |
| Michael Mayer | Raiders | 6.3 (10) | 3.3 (8) | 3.0 at home |
| Terry McLaurin | Commanders | 7.6 (5) | 4.6 (7) | 3.0 at home |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 6.0 (11) | 8.9 (9) | 2.9 away |
| T.J. Hockenson | Vikings | 6.3 (8) | 3.6 (10) | 2.7 at home |
| Adonai Mitchell | Jets | 7.4 (7) | 4.8 (9) | 2.6 at home |
| Theo Johnson | Giants | 3.0 (7) | 5.6 (7) | 2.6 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell | Chargers | 3.6 targets | 1.7 over 19 | 107% above |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jaguars | 1.0 targets | 0.5 over 17 | 89% above |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Commanders | 1.4 targets | 0.8 over 17 | 83% above |
| Charlie Kolar | Chargers | 4.0 targets | 2.2 over 14 | 81% above |
| Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals | 3.0 targets | 1.7 over 22 | 74% above |
| Matthew Golden | Packers | 11.0 targets | 6.3 over 20 | 73% above |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Cowboys | 3.4 targets | 2.0 over 16 | 70% above |
| Skyy Moore | Packers | 2.8 targets | 1.7 over 12 | 68% above |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars | 2.2 targets | 1.3 over 19 | 67% above |
| Blake Corum | Rams | 2.0 targets | 1.2 over 24 | 66% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | Buccaneers | 0.2 targets | 0.5 over 15 | 63% below |
| Jauan Jennings | Vikings | 1.8 targets | 4.5 over 20 | 60% below |
| Isaiah Williams | Jets | 1.2 targets | 3.0 over 17 | 60% below |
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 1.8 targets | 4.2 over 23 | 57% below |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars | 2.0 targets | 4.5 over 17 | 56% below |
| Nick Chubb | Texans | 0.4 targets | 0.9 over 12 | 56% below |
| Ameer Abdullah | Jaguars | 0.6 targets | 1.3 over 16 | 52% below |
| Corey Kiner | Patriots | 0.2 targets | 0.4 over 12 | 52% below |
| Jaylin Lane | Commanders | 1.0 targets | 2.1 over 10 | 52% below |
| Troy Franklin | Broncos | 2.2 targets | 4.3 over 20 | 49% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.