How NFL targets actually behave

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Across 277 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in targets, this page measures 4433 games in total. The median player in that field averages 3.4 targets. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 3.5 for the median of the 277 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Hunter Henry, with 23 logged games. Of the 260 players whose spread can be measured, 15 cluster tightly around their average, 194 vary moderately and 51 swing widely. 276 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.

Measured as of 2026-09-23, rebuilt daily from official box scores. Window: 2025-09-05 to 2026-09-22. No prices appear on this page.

Where the coin-flip line sits in NFL targets

Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 277 measured; the figures above this table are over all 277.

NFL targets — measured field
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Balanced line	Hit rate there
Hunter Henry	Patriots	23	4.8 targets	Over 4.5	12 of 23 (52%)
Rashid Shaheed	Seahawks	23	4.8 targets	Over 3.5	14 of 23 (61%)
Stefon Diggs	Commanders	23	6.0 targets	Over 5.5	12 of 23 (52%)
AJ Barner	Seahawks	22	3.5 targets	Over 3.5	9 of 22 (41%)
Blake Corum	Rams	22	0.9 targets	Over 0.5	11 of 22 (50%)
DeMario Douglas	Patriots	22	3.0 targets	Over 2.5	11 of 22 (50%)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Seahawks	22	9.6 targets	Over 9.5	13 of 22 (59%)
Kenneth Walker III	Chiefs	22	2.9 targets	Over 2.5	12 of 22 (55%)
Kyren Williams	Rams	22	2.9 targets	Over 2.5	10 of 22 (45%)
TreVeyon Henderson	Patriots	22	2.2 targets	Over 1.5	13 of 22 (59%)
Christian McCaffrey	49ers	21	7.4 targets	Over 7.5	10 of 21 (48%)
Cooper Kupp	Seahawks	21	4.7 targets	Over 3.5	11 of 21 (52%)
Courtland Sutton	Broncos	21	7.0 targets	Over 6.5	10 of 21 (48%)
Dalton Schultz	Texans	21	6.4 targets	Over 5.5	11 of 21 (52%)
DJ Moore	Bills	21	5.1 targets	Over 5.5	8 of 21 (38%)
James Cook III	Bills	21	2.5 targets	Over 2.5	13 of 21 (62%)
Kyle Monangai	Bears	21	2.0 targets	Over 1.5	11 of 21 (52%)
Cole Kmet	Bears	20	2.9 targets	Over 2.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Colston Loveland	Bears	20	5.6 targets	Over 4.5	11 of 20 (55%)
D'Andre Swift	Bears	20	2.8 targets	Over 2.5	9 of 20 (45%)
Dawson Knox	Bills	20	3.0 targets	Over 2.5	10 of 20 (50%)
DeVonta Smith	Eagles	20	7.2 targets	Over 7.5	10 of 20 (50%)
Evan Engram	Broncos	20	4.4 targets	Over 4.5	8 of 20 (40%)
Kayshon Boutte	Texans	20	3.6 targets	Over 3.5	10 of 20 (50%)
Keenan Allen	Colts	20	7.0 targets	Over 6.5	10 of 20 (50%)
Kenny Gainwell	Buccaneers	20	4.8 targets	Over 4.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Khalil Shakir	Bills	20	6.4 targets	Over 5.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Puka Nacua	Rams	20	10.8 targets	Over 10.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Rhamondre Stevenson	Patriots	20	3.0 targets	Over 2.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Rico Dowdle	Steelers	20	3.0 targets	Over 2.5	10 of 20 (50%)
RJ Harvey	Broncos	20	3.7 targets	Over 3.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Tetairoa McMillan	Panthers	20	7.3 targets	Over 7.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Travis Etienne Jr.	Saints	20	3.4 targets	Over 3.5	9 of 20 (45%)
Woody Marks	Texans	20	2.4 targets	Over 1.5	11 of 20 (55%)
Xavier Hutchinson	Texans	20	4.5 targets	Over 3.5	10 of 20 (50%)
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Lions	19	10.5 targets	Over 10.5	9 of 19 (47%)
Ashton Jeanty	Raiders	19	4.5 targets	Over 4.5	10 of 19 (53%)
Bijan Robinson	Falcons	19	6.2 targets	Over 5.5	10 of 19 (53%)
Brian Robinson Jr.	Falcons	19	0.8 targets	Over 0.5	10 of 19 (53%)
Chase Brown	Bengals	19	5.2 targets	Over 4.5	9 of 19 (47%)

The steadiest NFL targets records

Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.

The steadiest NFL targets records
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Trey McBride	Cardinals	19	10.1 targets	2.1	21%
Davante Adams	Rams	19	8.2 targets	2.2	27%
Tyler Warren	Colts	19	6.5 targets	1.8	27%
Justin Jefferson	Vikings	19	8.2 targets	2.3	28%
CeeDee Lamb	Cowboys	15	8.9 targets	2.7	30%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Seahawks	22	9.6 targets	2.9	31%
Chris Olave	Saints	18	9.9 targets	3.2	32%
Zay Flowers	Ravens	18	6.9 targets	2.2	32%
Puka Nacua	Rams	20	10.8 targets	3.4	32%
Tetairoa McMillan	Panthers	20	7.3 targets	2.5	33%

The widest NFL targets swings

The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.

The widest NFL targets swings
Player	Club	Logged games	Average	Standard deviation	Spread as % of average
Taysom Hill	Saints	13	1.2 targets	1.7	136%
Devin Singletary	Giants	19	1.3 targets	1.3	105%
Malachi Corley	Browns	12	1.2 targets	1.1	98%
Bo Melton	Packers	10	1.5 targets	1.4	95%
Zach Charbonnet	Seahawks	17	1.4 targets	1.3	94%
Isiah Pacheco	Chiefs	13	2.0 targets	1.9	94%
Greg Dortch	Cardinals	12	2.8 targets	2.6	93%
Nick Chubb	Texans	17	1.2 targets	1.1	90%
Tim Patrick	Jaguars	14	1.8 targets	1.6	88%
TreVeyon Henderson	Patriots	22	2.2 targets	1.9	87%

The widest home and away gaps in NFL targets

Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.

NFL targets — venue gaps
Player	Club	Home (games)	Away (games)	Gap
Terry McLaurin	Commanders	4.0 (4)	7.6 (7)	3.6 away
Xavier Legette	Panthers	2.6 (9)	5.9 (8)	3.3 away
Devaughn Vele	Saints	3.5 (6)	6.8 (5)	3.3 away
Keon Coleman	Bills	5.9 (8)	2.7 (7)	3.2 at home
Matthew Golden	Packers	2.3 (6)	5.0 (10)	2.7 away
Malik Washington	Dolphins	2.6 (8)	5.3 (10)	2.7 away
Ladd McConkey	Chargers	7.6 (10)	4.9 (9)	2.7 at home
Alec Pierce	Colts	4.1 (9)	6.7 (7)	2.6 away
Michael Pittman Jr.	Steelers	5.4 (10)	8.0 (7)	2.6 away
Jalen Coker	Panthers	6.3 (7)	3.7 (6)	2.6 at home

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five

Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Kenneth Walker III	Chiefs	5.4 targets	2.9 over 22	89% above
Tank Bigsby	Eagles	0.8 targets	0.4 over 14	87% above
Xavier Hutchinson	Texans	8.2 targets	4.5 over 20	84% above
Taysom Hill	Saints	2.2 targets	1.2 over 13	79% above
Isaac TeSlaa	Lions	3.6 targets	2.1 over 16	75% above
Devin Singletary	Giants	2.0 targets	1.3 over 19	58% above
Zach Charbonnet	Seahawks	2.2 targets	1.4 over 17	56% above
Colston Loveland	Bears	8.6 targets	5.6 over 20	54% above
Samaje Perine	Bengals	2.4 targets	1.6 over 16	54% above
Kalif Raymond	Bears	4.8 targets	3.1 over 14	53% above

Behind their own baseline over the last five

The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.

Behind their own baseline over the last five
Player	Club	Last 5	Full log	Difference
Jordan Mason	Vikings	0.2 targets	0.9 over 17	79% below
Sean Tucker	Buccaneers	0.2 targets	0.8 over 14	75% below
Nick Chubb	Texans	0.4 targets	1.2 over 17	68% below
Ollie Gordon II	Dolphins	0.2 targets	0.5 over 17	62% below
Jaylin Lane	Commanders	1.0 targets	2.4 over 14	58% below
Troy Franklin	Broncos	2.6 targets	5.6 over 19	54% below
Jake Ferguson	Cowboys	2.8 targets	5.7 over 19	51% below
Cedric Tillman	Browns	1.6 targets	3.3 over 12	51% below
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	Commanders	0.4 targets	0.8 over 19	49% below
Justice Hill	Ravens	1.4 targets	2.7 over 11	49% below

Common questions

Where does the NFL targets coin-flip line sit?

At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.

Is this a ranking of the best NFL targets props?

No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.

How many games are behind each targets figure?

The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.

Does a targets trend on this page predict the next game?

No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.

What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.

NFL player props and live odds

Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.