This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 85 NBA games since October 2025, Ace Bailey has gone over the posted 14.5 points 39 times (46%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 13.8 points across those 85 games. Their last 5 average 16.2, 16% above their 13.9 this season (13 games). They have gone over 14.5 in each of their last 3. Against the San Antonio Spurs in this log they have 4 games, averaging 14.3. These are measured box-score results from Utah Jazz games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 5:10 PM ET, at home against the San Antonio Spurs. Last logged game November 13, 2 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers Made | 85 | 1.9 three-pointers | Over 1.5 | 45 of 85 (53%) |
| Points | 85 | 13.8 points | Over 13.5 | 41 of 85 (48%) |
| Rebounds | 85 | 4.5 rebounds | Over 4.5 | 38 of 85 (45%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 0.5 | 67 of 85 (79%) | 9 of 10 (90%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 | 45 of 85 (53%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 | 26 of 85 (31%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Points | Over 9.5 | 60 of 85 (71%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Points | Over 13.5 | 41 of 85 (48%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Points | Over 17.5 | 27 of 85 (32%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Rebounds | Over 2.5 | 62 of 85 (73%) | 9 of 10 (90%) |
| Rebounds | Over 4.5 | 38 of 85 (45%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Rebounds | Over 5.5 | 30 of 85 (35%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
Every market Ace Bailey is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | 3-Pointers Made | Points | Rebounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Houston Rockets | Away | 3 | 21 | 3 |
| 2026-11-11 | Orlando Magic | Home | 3 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | Miami Heat | Home | 3 | 23 | 7 |
| 2026-11-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Away | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dallas Mavericks | Away | 0 | 12 | 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 1 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | Portland Trail Blazers | Home | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 1 | 19 | 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | Memphis Grizzlies | Home | 3 | 17 | 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | Los Angeles Lakers | Home | 1 | 17 | 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | New Orleans Pelicans | Home | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | Memphis Grizzlies | Away | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| 2026-04-12 | Los Angeles Lakers | Away | 1 | 15 | 3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Memphis Grizzlies | Home | 3 | 23 | 10 |
| 2026-04-05 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Away | 2 | 14 | 4 |
| Market | Meetings | Average in them | High | Average, all games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers Made | 4 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.9 |
| Points | 4 | 14.3 | 25 | 13.8 |
| Rebounds | 4 | 5.5 | 6 | 4.5 |
Counted from the same 85 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Points |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 8 |
| Median | 13 |
| 75th percentile | 19 |
| Highest logged game | 37 |
49 of 85 games (58%) landed between 8 and 19; 48 (56%) finished at or above the 13 median, and the spread from 0 to 37 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Ace Bailey actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 7 | 14.4 |
| October 2026 | 6 | 13.3 |
| April 2026 | 5 | 17.2 |
| March 2026 | 14 | 19.6 |
| February 2026 | 11 | 14.3 |
| January 2026 | 12 | 13.8 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | 18 |
| 2 days | 48 | 13.9 |
| 3 to 4 days | 14 | 10.6 |
| 5 or more days | 7 | 12.3 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 6 | 16.2 | 23 |
| Houston Rockets | 5 | 15.8 | 22 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 5 | 14.8 | 19 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5 | 13.2 | 20 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 4 | 14.3 | 23 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 4 | 14.3 | 25 |
Most-faced in this log is Memphis Grizzlies, 6 games at 16.2, best of 23. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 13 median rather than a posted line, Ace Bailey's longest run at or above it is 8 games and the run open at the newest of the 85 is 3. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| points | 13.8 | 7.3 | mixed | 85 |
| rebounds | 4.5 | 2.6 | mixed | 85 |
| 3-pointers made | 1.9 | 1.6 | volatile | 85 |
Their points is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 13.8 with a spread of 7.3; their 3-pointers made swings most, 1.9 with a spread of 1.6. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Ace Bailey has gone over 1.5 three-pointers in 45 of 85 logged games (53%).
At home they average 2.4 over 44 games; away, 1.3 over 41.
Ace Bailey 3-pointers made: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Ace Bailey has gone over 13.5 points in 41 of 85 logged games (48%).
At home they average 15.6 over 44 games; away, 11.9 over 41.
Ace Bailey points: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Ace Bailey has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 38 of 85 logged games (45%).
At home they average 4.8 over 44 games; away, 4.3 over 41.
Ace Bailey rebounds: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Ace Bailey of the Utah Jazz. The books are currently pricing 3-Pointers Made, Points and Rebounds lines for Ace Bailey, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NBA price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
Whatever the books have priced: currently 3-Pointers Made, Points and Rebounds. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NBA tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NBA prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.