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Over 85 NBA games since October 2025, Ace Bailey has gone over the posted 14.5 points 39 times (46%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 13.8 points across those 85 games. Their last 5 average 16.2, 16% above their 13.9 this season (13 games). They have gone over 14.5 in each of their last 3. Against the San Antonio Spurs in this log they have 4 games, averaging 14.3. These are measured box-score results from Utah Jazz games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 5:10 PM ET, at home against the San Antonio Spurs. Last logged game November 13, 2 days before.
| Line | All 85 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 points | 73 of 85 (86%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 9.5 points | 60 of 85 (71%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 13.5 points | 41 of 85 (48%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 17.5 points | 27 of 85 (32%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 20.5 points | 13 of 85 (15%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Ace Bailey right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Ace Bailey has averaged 16.2 points over their last 5, 17% above their 13.8 across all 85 logged games.
Ace Bailey's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 7.3 around 13.8. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 16.2 points |
| Last 10 games | 14.6 points |
| All 85 logged games | 13.8 points |
| Best in the log | 37 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (44 games) | 15.6 points |
| Away (41 games) | 11.9 points |
Ace Bailey's highest in this log is 37 points against the Toronto Raptors on 2026-03-23, and the lowest is 0 against the Detroit Pistons on 2025-12-26. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 13.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 26 of 44 (59%) |
| On the road | 15 of 41 (37%) |
| On one day between games | 11 of 15 (73%) |
| On two or more days between games | 30 of 68 (44%) |
| Against the Memphis Grizzlies | 4 of 6 (67%) |
| Against the Houston Rockets | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Against the Los Angeles Lakers | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Against the Minnesota Timberwolves | 2 of 5 (40%) |
Ace Bailey has cleared 13.5 points 22 points more often at home, 59% in 44 home games against 37% in 41 away.
Short rest has suited them, 73% over 15 games on a single day between games against 44% over 68 with more.
Their deepest matchup sample is 6 games against the Memphis Grizzlies, 4 of them over 13.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Ace Bailey has 4 logged games against the San Antonio Spurs, averaging 14.3 points with a high of 25. Most recent first, those games read 5, 19, 25, 8. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Houston Rockets | Away | 21 |
| 2026-11-11 | Orlando Magic | Home | 18 |
| 2026-11-10 | Miami Heat | Home | 23 |
| 2026-11-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Away | 7 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dallas Mavericks | Away | 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | New Orleans Pelicans | Away | 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | San Antonio Spurs | Away | 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | Portland Trail Blazers | Home | 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | San Antonio Spurs | Home | 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | Memphis Grizzlies | Home | 17 |
Every points prop the books have posted for Ace Bailey of the Utah Jazz, with the NBA game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Ace Bailey props and hit rates · Every NBA points prop
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