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With no line posted, over 82 NBA games since October 2025, Pelle Larsson has gone over a balanced line of 10.5 points 40 times (49%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 11.4 points across those 82 games. Their last 5 (10.8) are in line with their 11.4 this season (11 games), so there is no recent move to read into. They have gone over 10.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Miami Heat games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 82 | 11.4 points | Over 10.5 | 40 of 82 (49%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | 82 | 0.9 three-pointers | Over 0.5 | 48 of 82 (59%) |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | 82 | 18.2 combined points, rebounds and assists | Over 18.5 | 40 of 82 (49%) |
| Rebounds | 82 | 3.5 rebounds | Over 3.5 | 33 of 82 (40%) |
| Assists | 82 | 3.4 assists | Over 3.5 | 35 of 82 (43%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Over 7.5 | 57 of 82 (70%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Points | Over 10.5 | 40 of 82 (49%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Points | Over 15.5 | 25 of 82 (30%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 0.5 | 48 of 82 (59%) | 9 of 10 (90%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 | 22 of 82 (27%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 | 7 of 82 (9%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | Over 13.5 | 57 of 82 (70%) | 9 of 10 (90%) |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | Over 18.5 | 40 of 82 (49%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Points + Rebounds + Assists | Over 23.5 | 24 of 82 (29%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Rebounds | Over 2.5 | 54 of 82 (66%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Rebounds | Over 3.5 | 33 of 82 (40%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Rebounds | Over 4.5 | 25 of 82 (30%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Assists | Over 2.5 | 55 of 82 (67%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Assists | Over 3.5 | 35 of 82 (43%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Assists | Over 4.5 | 21 of 82 (26%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
Every market Pelle Larsson is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points | 3-Pointers Made | Points + Rebounds + Assists | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Utah Jazz | Away | 14 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 2 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sacramento Kings | Away | 11 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | Golden State Warriors | Away | 13 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | LA Clippers | Away | 7 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | Away | 9 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | Indiana Pacers | Home | 18 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | Atlanta Hawks | Away | 17 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | Dallas Mavericks | Home | 12 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4 |
Counted from the same 82 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Points |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 7 |
| Median | 10 |
| 75th percentile | 16 |
| Highest logged game | 28 |
49 of 82 games (60%) landed between 7 and 16; 49 (60%) finished at or above the 10 median, and the spread from 0 to 28 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Pelle Larsson actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 5 | 10.8 |
| October 2026 | 6 | 11.8 |
| April 2026 | 6 | 13.5 |
| March 2026 | 15 | 13.5 |
| February 2026 | 8 | 12.4 |
| January 2026 | 15 | 11.6 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | 14.5 |
| 2 days | 47 | 11.4 |
| 3 to 4 days | 15 | 8.5 |
| 5 or more days | 4 | 12.8 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 6 | 13.7 | 19 |
| Orlando Magic | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Chicago Bulls | 4 | 18.3 | 22 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 4 | 17 | 21 |
| Indiana Pacers | 4 | 13.3 | 18 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 | 10.8 | 14 |
Most-faced in this log is Charlotte Hornets, 6 games at 13.7, best of 19. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 10 median rather than a posted line, Pelle Larsson's longest run at or above it is 9 games and the run open at the newest of the 82 is 3. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
Pelle Larsson has gone over 10.5 points in 40 of 82 logged games (49%).
At home they average 12.2 over 39 games; away, 10.6 over 43.
Pelle Larsson points: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Pelle Larsson has gone over 0.5 three-pointers in 48 of 82 logged games (59%).
At home they average 0.9 over 39 games; away, 1.0 over 43.
Pelle Larsson 3-pointers made: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Pelle Larsson has gone over 18.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in 40 of 82 logged games (49%).
At home they average 19.0 over 39 games; away, 17.5 over 43.
Pelle Larsson points + rebounds + assists: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Pelle Larsson has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 33 of 82 logged games (40%).
At home they average 3.3 over 39 games; away, 3.6 over 43.
Pelle Larsson rebounds: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Pelle Larsson has gone over 3.5 assists in 35 of 82 logged games (43%).
At home they average 3.5 over 39 games; away, 3.3 over 43.
Pelle Larsson assists: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Pelle Larsson of the Miami Heat. The books are currently pricing Points, 3-Pointers Made, Points + Rebounds + Assists, Rebounds and Assists lines for Pelle Larsson, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NBA price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Whatever the books have priced: currently Points, 3-Pointers Made, Points + Rebounds + Assists, Rebounds and Assists. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NBA tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NBA prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.