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With no line posted, over 82 NBA games since October 2025, Pelle Larsson has gone over a balanced line of 10.5 points 40 times (49%), and over their last 10 they have done it 7 times (70%). They average 11.4 points across those 82 games. Their last 5 (10.8) are in line with their 11.4 this season (11 games), so there is no recent move to read into. They have gone over 10.5 in each of their last 3. These are measured box-score results from Miami Heat games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Line | All 82 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 points | 69 of 82 (84%) | 10 of 10 (100%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 7.5 points | 57 of 82 (70%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 10.5 points | 40 of 82 (49%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 15.5 points | 25 of 82 (30%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 17.5 points | 13 of 82 (16%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Pelle Larsson right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Pelle Larsson has averaged 10.8 points over their last 5, against 11.4 across all 82 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Pelle Larsson's points vary moderately, a standard deviation of 6.0 around 11.4. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 10.8 points |
| Last 10 games | 12.3 points |
| All 82 logged games | 11.4 points |
| Best in the log | 28 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (39 games) | 12.2 points |
| Away (43 games) | 10.6 points |
Pelle Larsson's highest in this log is 28 points against the Milwaukee Bucks on 2026-03-12, and the lowest is 0 against the Boston Celtics on 2026-02-06. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 10.5 points |
|---|---|
| At home | 20 of 39 (51%) |
| On the road | 20 of 43 (47%) |
| On one day between games | 11 of 15 (73%) |
| On two or more days between games | 28 of 64 (44%) |
| Against the Charlotte Hornets | 5 of 6 (83%) |
| Against the Orlando Magic | 1 of 5 (20%) |
Pelle Larsson has cleared 10.5 points at much the same rate home and away, 51% against 47%.
Short rest has suited them, 73% over 15 games on a single day between games against 44% over 64 with more.
Their deepest matchup sample is 6 games against the Charlotte Hornets, 5 of them over 10.5 points.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Utah Jazz | Away | 14 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sacramento Kings | Away | 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | Golden State Warriors | Away | 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | LA Clippers | Away | 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | Away | 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | Indiana Pacers | Home | 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | Atlanta Hawks | Away | 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | Dallas Mavericks | Home | 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | Charlotte Hornets | Away | 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | Detroit Pistons | Home | 7 |
Every points prop the books have posted for Pelle Larsson of the Miami Heat, with the NBA game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NBA box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
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