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With no line posted, over 20 NFL games since October 2025, Jake Ferguson has gone over a balanced line of 16.5 receiving yards 11 times (55%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 23.2 receiving yards across those 20 games. Their last 5 average 12.8, 45% below their 23.2 over their last 20 games. These are measured box-score results from Dallas Cowboys games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:25 PM ET, at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 20 | 23.2 receiving yards | Over 16.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Receptions | 20 | 3.0 receptions | Over 2.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) |
| Targets | 20 | 4.0 targets | Over 3.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) |
| Receiving TDs | 20 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 20 (35%) |
| Anytime Touchdown | 20 | 7 of 20 (35%) | No line, yes or no | 35% |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | Over 11.5 | 14 of 20 (70%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 16.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 29.5 | 6 of 20 (30%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Receptions | Over 1.5 | 16 of 20 (80%) | 7 of 10 (70%) |
| Receptions | Over 2.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Receptions | Over 3.5 | 7 of 20 (35%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Targets | Over 2.5 | 14 of 20 (70%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Targets | Over 3.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Targets | Over 5.5 | 6 of 20 (30%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Receiving TDs | Over 0.5 | 7 of 20 (35%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Receiving TDs | Over 1.5 | 2 of 20 (10%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
Every market measured for Jake Ferguson, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Targets | Receiving TDs | Anytime Touchdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | Houston Texans | Away | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 23 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Washington Commanders | Home | 43 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | New York Giants | Away | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Counted from the same 20 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 6 |
| Median | 19 |
| 75th percentile | 33 |
| Highest logged game | 60 |
12 of 20 games (60%) landed between 6 and 33; 11 (55%) finished at or above the 19 median, and the spread from 0 to 60 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Jake Ferguson actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4 | 10.8 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 24 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 24.8 |
| November 2025 | 4 | 40.5 |
| October 2025 | 3 | 20.7 |
| Gap | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 3 to 4 days | 3 | 20.3 |
| 5 or more days | 16 | 23.1 |
The gap is the distance to the previous game in this log, not a rest figure. A box score does not record a game a player sat out inside it.
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 26 | 43 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 30 | 60 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 5.5 | 6 |
Most-faced in this log is Washington Commanders, 3 games at 26, best of 43. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 19 median rather than a posted line, Jake Ferguson's longest run at or above it is 3 games and the run open at the newest of the 20 is 1. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| targets | 4.0 | 2.0 | mixed | 20 |
| receptions | 3.0 | 1.8 | mixed | 20 |
| receiving yards | 23.2 | 17.8 | volatile | 20 |
Their targets is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 4.0 with a spread of 2.0; their receiving yards swings most, 23.2 with a spread of 17.8. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Jake Ferguson has gone over 16.5 receiving yards in 11 of 20 logged games (55%).
At home they average 32.8 over 9 games; away, 15.4 over 11.
Jake Ferguson receiving yards: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Jake Ferguson has gone over 2.5 receptions in 12 of 20 logged games (60%).
At home they average 4.1 over 9 games; away, 2.1 over 11.
Jake Ferguson receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Jake Ferguson has gone over 3.5 targets in 12 of 20 logged games (60%).
At home they average 5.4 over 9 games; away, 2.9 over 11.
Jake Ferguson targets: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Jake Ferguson has gone over 0.5 receiving touchdowns in 7 of 20 logged games (35%).
At home they average 0.6 over 9 games; away, 0.4 over 11.
Jake Ferguson receiving TDs: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Jake Ferguson has a anytime touchdown in 7 of 20 logged games.
At home they have recorded one in 3 of 9 games; away, 4 of 11.
Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop history for Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys. What follows is the record in Receiving Yards, Receptions, Targets, Receiving TDs and Anytime Touchdown: how often they have finished above each line their own game log supports, what their average looks like at home and away, and how much they have moved lately against their own baseline. Every figure is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game they actually played, and rebuilt daily. None of it is a forecast, and none of it is compared with a price. When the live board carries a line for this player, it appears at the top of this page.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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This page keeps the measured history. When the live board carries a line for Jake Ferguson, it appears at the top of this page, and the address does not change, so a bookmark or a link keeps working.
How often they finished above each line their own distribution supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, with the game count printed beside every rate. A percentage without a denominator is not a measurement, so none appears here without one.
No. It is a record of games that have been played, and it is not compared with any price. Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.